Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Sunday July 5 2026

The Baltimore Orioles travel to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, to face the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday, July 5, 2026, at 1:05 PM ET. The game will be televised on Peacock. Baltimore enters the matchup with a 41-48 record and is 17-25 on the road, while Cincinnati is 40-47 overall and 19-23 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Orioles a 56.5 percent chance to win compared to 43.5 percent for the Reds. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks⁠.

Starting Pitchers Take Center Stage

Baltimore is expected to hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP across 93.0 innings. He has allowed 88 hits, struck out 96 batters, walked 47, and surrendered 11 home runs. Cincinnati is scheduled to counter with Nick Lodolo, who enters with a 2-2 record, a 5.05 ERA, and a 1.47 WHIP over 51.2 innings. He has given up 54 hits, recorded 42 strikeouts, issued 22 walks, and allowed eight home runs. Bradish has logged significantly more innings with the lower ERA, while Lodolo has made fewer starts but carries similar WHIP numbers.

Baltimore Looks to Build on Its Latest Victory

The Orioles enter Sunday with a 41-48 overall record and have gone 17-25 away from home this season. Baltimore recently defeated Cincinnati 3-0 after splitting a three-game stretch against the White Sox, winning one of those meetings after dropping three straight contests with one of them against the Nationals. The victory on Friday gives the Orioles a positive result heading into the remainder of the series.

Baltimore has produced a .238 team batting average while scoring 406 runs on 704 hits. The Orioles have hit 103 home runs with a .318 on-base percentage and a .396 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.34 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, 712 strikeouts, 314 walks, and a .253 opponent batting average.

One area working in Baltimore’s favor is its pitching compared to Cincinnati. The Orioles have the lower ERA, lower WHIP, and lower opponent batting average, giving them an opportunity to keep games competitive even when the offense is not producing at its highest level.

Cincinnati Tries to Respond at Home

The Reds bring a 40-47 record into Sunday’s matchup and are 19-23 at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati recently lost 3-0 to Baltimore after earning a road win over Milwaukee. Before that victory, the Reds dropped three consecutive games, making consistency a challenge over the last five contests.

Cincinnati owns a .227 batting average with 364 runs scored and 663 hits. The Reds have hit 106 home runs while posting a .309 on-base percentage and a .388 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has compiled a 4.56 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP with 699 strikeouts, 391 walks, and a .249 opponent batting average.

The Reds’ biggest statistical advantage is their home run production. Cincinnati has hit three more home runs than Baltimore despite collecting fewer hits and posting a lower batting average. If that power shows up, it could help offset some of the club’s overall offensive inconsistencies.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Pick

• Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline

Baltimore gets the edge based strictly on the information provided. The Orioles have the higher matchup predictor percentage, won the most recent meeting between these clubs, and hold advantages in ERA, WHIP, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and total runs scored. Those numbers give Baltimore the stronger overall statistical profile entering Sunday’s contest.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5

I like the under if the total is set at 8.5. Baltimore’s pitching staff has been more effective statistically than Cincinnati’s, and the Orioles also held the Reds scoreless in the most recent meeting. With Baltimore’s projected starter carrying a 3.77 ERA and both offenses posting batting averages below .240, I think this matchup has a good chance to stay below that number.

Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4 – Cincinnati Reds 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.