Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction for Wednesday August 12 2026

The Baltimore Orioles will face the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday afternoon at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET, with MLB.TV carrying the game. Baltimore enters the matchup at 57-62 overall and 25-32 on the road, while Minnesota is 59-61 overall with a 31-27 record at Target Field. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Baseball bettors looking for more analysis throughout the schedule can also check out free MLB picks before placing their wagers.

Starting Pitchers

Baltimore is expected to start Shane Baz, who enters Wednesday at 4-11 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 136.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 134 hits while recording 120 strikeouts against 46 walks and surrendering only 10 home runs. Minnesota lists Zebby Matthews as its probable starter, although he is also listed as day-to-day. Matthews is 5-8 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 86 innings, allowing 87 hits and 17 home runs while striking out 73 and walking 28.

Baltimore Trying to Turn Around Recent Slide

The Orioles enter Wednesday with a 57-62 overall record and have struggled away from home at 25-32. Baltimore has dropped four of its last five games, with the lone victory coming in a 10-5 road win over Texas. The Orioles lost 9-5 to Minnesota on Monday after dropping three of their previous four games, so recent results have left them searching for some consistency.

Baltimore is batting .235 this season with 533 runs, 926 hits and 138 home runs. The Orioles own a .319 on-base percentage and .393 slugging percentage. Pete Alonso has provided much of their offensive production, leading the club with 25 home runs and 75 RBI while batting .252.

Pitching has been another concern for Baltimore, which owns a 4.24 team ERA and 1.34 WHIP while opponents are batting .252. However, Baz's individual numbers are considerably better than Baltimore's overall pitching figures. His 3.76 ERA combined with only 10 home runs allowed across 136.1 innings gives the Orioles a potentially important advantage in this matchup.

Minnesota Looks to Capitalize at Target Field

Minnesota comes into this game at 59-61 overall and has been much more comfortable at home, posting a 31-27 record at Target Field. The Twins have won three of their last five, including Monday's 9-5 victory over Baltimore. Minnesota also defeated Milwaukee 8-6 and Kansas City 4-3 during that stretch, with its two losses against Milwaukee both coming by a single run.

The Twins hold the statistical advantage offensively, batting .244 with 562 runs, 987 hits and 143 home runs. Minnesota has a .319 OBP and .407 slugging percentage. Byron Buxton leads the team with 25 home runs, while Josh Bell has driven in a team-high 71 runs.

The concern comes on the mound. Minnesota carries a 4.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, both worse than Baltimore's season numbers. Matthews' 5.23 ERA also creates a difficult matchup against an Orioles lineup capable of producing power. He has surrendered 17 home runs in only 86 innings, and Baltimore's 138 homers suggest that could become a significant factor.

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline

Baltimore has struggled recently, but the starting pitching matchup provides enough reason to back the Orioles. Baz has a 3.76 ERA compared with Matthews' 5.23, and he has been particularly effective at limiting home runs. Minnesota has the stronger home record and slightly better offensive statistics, but the difference between the probable starters makes Baltimore the more attractive side. Take the Orioles on the moneyline.

Pick: Over 8.5

There is enough offensive potential to look toward the over, particularly with Minnesota averaging more runs and showing slightly better power numbers for the season. Matthews has allowed 17 home runs in 86 innings, while Minnesota's bullpen and pitching staff contribute to a 4.59 team ERA. Baltimore's pitching numbers are better, but Minnesota has enough offensive production to contribute. Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.

This game was completed prior to play on Tuesday.