Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Monday September 14 2026

The Baltimore Orioles visit the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Monday, September 14, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Baltimore enters at 72-77 overall and 36-38 on the road, while New York is 69-79 overall and 34-40 at home. The Orioles are 3-2 over their last five games but are coming off a 7-3 loss, while the Mets have won four of their last five and most recently rolled to a 12-2 victory. This is the first game of a three-game series between the teams. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Baltimore is scheduled to start Brandon Young, who enters at 9-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 140.2 innings. He has allowed 140 hits and 20 home runs while recording 112 strikeouts against 50 walks. New York counters with Jonah Tong, who is 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 15 innings. He has allowed 12 hits and two home runs while striking out 14 and walking eight. The WHIP numbers are nearly identical, but Baltimore has the starting-pitching advantage based on the significantly lower ERA and much larger body of work.

Baltimore Brings the More Proven Starting Pitching

Baltimore enters the series at 72-77 overall with a 36-38 road record. The Orioles have won three of their last five, earning victories by scores of 7-4, 9-5 and 6-4. Their two losses during that stretch both came by 9-5 and 7-3 scores. Baltimore has therefore scored at least five runs in four of its last five games, although its pitching has also allowed at least four runs in each contest.

The Orioles are batting .234 with 671 runs, 1,163 hits and 179 home runs. They own a .316 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Baltimore's pitching staff carries a 4.17 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .254. The staff has recorded 1,201 strikeouts against 493 walks, and the Orioles are 44-45 in night games.

Baltimore's most notable advantage is its run production. Despite owning the lower team batting average, the Orioles have scored 28 more runs than New York and have the better on-base percentage. Baltimore also enters with the more established starting-pitching profile. The concern is a staff that has struggled to limit opposing hitters, particularly with its .254 opponent batting average.

New York's Offense Has Caught Fire

New York enters Monday at 69-79 overall and 34-40 at Citi Field. The Mets have won four of their last five games, with victories by scores of 12-2, 15-14, 7-5 and 9-4. Their only loss during that stretch was a 6-4 defeat. The recent offensive production has been impressive, as New York has scored 47 runs over those five games, including at least seven runs in each of its four victories.

The Mets are batting .239 with 643 runs, 1,192 hits and 188 home runs. They have a .309 on-base percentage and .397 slugging percentage. New York's pitching staff owns a 4.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while holding opponents to a .242 batting average. The staff has accumulated 1,317 strikeouts against 510 walks, and the Mets are 38-50 in night games.

New York's recent offense is difficult to ignore, and its season-long power numbers support some of that production. The Mets have nine more home runs than Baltimore while also holding advantages in batting average and slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has a slightly higher ERA than Baltimore, but the lower WHIP and substantially lower opponent batting average give New York an edge in two important pitching categories.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline

The Baltimore Orioles Moneyline is the preferred side in a matchup that appears fairly close statistically. New York owns the stronger recent form, but Baltimore enters with the more trustworthy starting-pitching profile. The Orioles' scheduled starter carries a 3.71 ERA across 140.2 innings, while the Mets' starter has worked only 15 innings and owns a 4.80 ERA. Baltimore has also scored more runs for the season and has the better on-base percentage. With neither club holding a strong home-road advantage, the starting matchup is enough to lean toward Baltimore.

Pick: Over 8.5

Take the Over if the total is set at 8.5 or lower. Both offenses have been producing runs recently, and neither pitching staff has consistently dominated this season. Baltimore's last five games have produced combined totals of 10, 11, 14, 14 and 10 runs. New York's last five have produced 14, 10, 29, 12 and 13. With the Mets scoring 47 runs across their last five games and Baltimore reaching at least five runs in four of its last five, this matchup has a stronger statistical case for another higher-scoring result.

Final Picks: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline and Over 8.5

This preview was completed on Sunday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.