Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Wednesday September 16 2026

The Baltimore Orioles visit the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET with coverage on ESPN. Baltimore enters at 73-78 overall and 37-39 on the road, while New York is 69-81 overall and 34-41 at home. The Orioles won the completed series opener 2-1 and have gone 3-2 across their last five completed games, while the Mets are 2-3 over their last five and have dropped two straight. DraftKings lists Baltimore at +123 on the moneyline and New York at -148, with the Orioles +1.5 at -181 and the Mets -1.5 at +149. The total is 8.5 runs, with the Over at -108 and Under at -112. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Baltimore is scheduled to start Chris Bassitt, who enters at 7-5 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.59 WHIP through 90.1 innings. Bassitt has allowed 108 hits while recording 66 strikeouts against 36 walks and surrendering 10 home runs. New York counters with Robert Stock, who is 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP through 30.1 innings. Stock has allowed 38 hits while striking out 29, walking 15 and giving up two home runs. Neither starter has produced especially strong run-prevention numbers, but Baltimore has the more favorable statistical matchup. Bassitt owns the lower ERA and WHIP and has worked nearly three times as many innings, while Stock's combination of a 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP creates considerable concern for New York.

Baltimore Looks to Build on the Series Opener

Baltimore enters Wednesday at 73-78 overall and 37-39 away from home. The Orioles are last in the AL East but have shown some encouraging form recently, going 3-2 over their last five completed games. Baltimore defeated New York 2-1 in the completed opener of this series after losing consecutive games at Toronto by scores of 8-1 and 7-3. Before those defeats, the Orioles recorded victories of 7-4 and 9-5. Baltimore therefore has three victories in five games despite being outscored heavily in its two losses.

The Orioles are batting .235 with 1,181 hits, 674 runs and 180 home runs this season. They have a .316 on-base percentage and .393 slugging percentage, showing an offense that has struggled with consistency despite possessing respectable power. Baltimore's pitching staff carries a 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while opponents are batting .254. The staff has recorded 1,215 strikeouts against 503 walks. Baltimore has also played exactly .500 in night games at 45-45.

The primary reason to like Baltimore in this matchup is the opportunity its offense has against New York's scheduled starter. The Orioles have scored seven or more runs in two of their last five completed games and nine in another, so there has been some recent offensive upside despite the season-long .235 average. Baltimore also already demonstrated that it can win at Citi Field with the 2-1 victory in the completed opener. With the Orioles getting plus money and owning the more favorable starting-pitching numbers, there is value in backing the visitor rather than laying a significant price with a New York club that sits 12 games below .500.

New York Searches for More Offense at Citi Field

New York enters Wednesday at 69-81 overall and just 34-41 at Citi Field. The Mets have dropped two consecutive completed games, losing 2-1 to Baltimore after being shut out 2-0 in their previous contest. Their last five have been highly inconsistent. New York also owns a 12-2 victory during that stretch and survived a 15-14 shootout, but those performances surround losses of 6-4, 2-0 and 2-1. The Mets are 2-3 over those five games and have scored only one run across their two most recent completed contests.

The Mets are batting .238 with 1,201 hits, 644 runs and 189 home runs. Their .308 on-base percentage is below Baltimore's .316 mark, while New York holds a narrow advantage in slugging percentage at .395 compared with Baltimore's .393. The Mets have the slightly better season-long pitching numbers, carrying a 4.16 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .241 average. They have also recorded 1,338 strikeouts against 515 walks. New York has struggled considerably in night games, however, going 38-51.

New York's biggest concern Wednesday is that its modest overall pitching advantage may be neutralized by the starting matchup. The Mets' scheduled starter enters with an ERA approaching 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.75, meaning Baltimore should have opportunities to put runners aboard early. New York has enough power to respond against a Baltimore starter who has also allowed plenty of traffic, but scoring one combined run over the last two completed games makes it difficult to justify laying -148. The Mets may need their offense to wake up quickly if they are going to avoid dropping another game in this series.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline +123

Baltimore offers the better betting value as a +123 road underdog. The Orioles have the better overall record, a slightly better road record than New York's home mark, and they won the completed series opener 2-1. More importantly, Baltimore has the starting-pitching advantage based on the supplied numbers. New York's scheduled starter carries a 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, while the Mets have managed just one total run over their last two completed games. Baltimore's starter has his own vulnerabilities, so this is not a low-risk position, but getting plus money with the team holding the more favorable starting matchup makes the Orioles the preferred side.

Pick: Over 8.5 -108

The completed opener finished with only three runs, but Wednesday presents a substantially different pitching setup. Baltimore's scheduled starter carries a 4.88 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while New York's starter owns a 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Those numbers suggest both offenses should have opportunities to create baserunners. The recent scoring has also been more explosive than the last two Mets results suggest: three of Baltimore's previous four games before the opener reached at least nine combined runs, while three of New York's previous four did the same. With both starters allowing considerable traffic, Over 8.5 is the preferred total despite the low-scoring beginning to the series.

Final Picks: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline +123 and Over 8.5 -108

This preview was completed on Tuesday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.