Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Pick and Prediction September 28th, 2025
The Yankees will look to earn a division crown on the final day of the regular season as they face the Orioles on Sunday at 3:05 p.m. EST in Yankee Stadium. Check out our Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees pick and prediction here!
Baltimore is looking forward to the end of the season so they can rebuild for 2026. As it stands, the Orioles are at the bottom of the AL East with a 75-86 record. They have lost two in a row and six of their last ten heading into this contest. Meanwhile, the Yankees are tied with the Blue Jays for the division lead with a 93-68 record. The Yankees have done everything they can with seven wins in a row and nine wins in their last ten to get to this point. New York is a -190 money line favorite while the total is set at 8.5 runs. Can the Yankees put pressure on the Blue Jays with a win here?
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Baltimore Still at the Bottom
Baltimore fell to the Yankees in their latest contest by a score of 6-1. Coby Mayo had a solo homer in the eighth inning, but there was not much offense for the Orioles besides that. There were three hits and one walk total on the day. Tomoyuki Sugano gave up four runs in 4.1 innings anyway, so it was over from that point.
With the disappointing campaign that is Baltimore’s 2025, pieces had to be sold off at the deadline. They started off by acquiring Alex Jackson from the Yankees for a PTBNL and sending Bryan Baker to the Rays for a draft pick. Then it got spicy. Gregory Soto was sent to the Mets for Wellington Aracena and Cameron Foster. Seranthony Dominguez was sent to the Blue Jays with cash for Justin Watts-Brown. Then came the big trades. Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano were sent with cash to the Padres for Boston Bateman, Tyson Neighbors, Tanner Smith, Brandon Butterworth, Cobb Hightower, and Victor Figueroa. Andrew Kittredge was traded to the Cubs for Wilfri De La Cruz and Ramon Urias was sent to the Astros for Twine Palmer. Finally, Charlie Morton was traded to the Tigers for Micah Ashman and Cedric Mullins was sent to the Mets for Raimon Gomez, Anthony Nunez, and Chandler Marsh. It was a busy month for Baltimore, but it was a productive one. Whether these moves will constitute a rebuild or a reload remains to be seen, but Baltimore could be an interesting team to watch in the offseason.
Kyle Bradish will take the hill as the starter for the Orioles as they look to play the spoiler here. Bradish recently came back from an injury that kept him off the mound for nearly two years. He has made only five starts this season but is still sporting a 2.25 ERA with a 1-1 record. He has a 1.00 WHIP to his name and 39 strikeouts through 28 innings. Bradish has yet to give up more than two runs in a start this season (knock on wood).
Yankees Yearning for More
New York earned another win, this time by a score of 6-1 at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. Aaron Judge had a homer and three RBI while Giancarlo Stanton added a solo homer. Ryan McMahon had a homer as well while Cody Bellinger chipped in another RBI for the Yankees. Cam Schlittler had a phenomenal start with seven innings of shutout ball, giving up only two hits and one walk while striking out nine.
New York made several minor moves to improve their depth at the trade deadline. Their first move was acquiring Ryan McMahon from the Rockies for Josh Grosz and Griffin Herring. Amed Rosario was then acquired from the Nationals for Clayton Beeter and Browm Martinez. Carlos Carrasco was sent to the Braves for cash and Austin Slater was traded from the White Sox to the Yankees in exchange for Gage Ziehl. New York then addressed the bullpen with a trade with San Francisco, getting Camilo Doval for Jesus Rodriguez, Trystan Vrieling, Parks Harber, and Carlos De La Rosa. Jake Bird was then acquired from Colorado for Roc Riggio and Ben Shields. Jose Caballero was traded from Tampa to New York for Everson Pereira and future considerations. and David Bednar was sent from Pittsburgh to New York for Rafael Flores, Edgleen Perez, and Brian Sanchez. Finally, Oswald Peraza was sent to the Angels for Wilberson De Pena and future considerations. Many moves were made, but until we see the Yankees capitalize in October, this is to be considered a serious risk.
Luis Gil will look to deliver the Yankees a division crown as the starter in this one. In only ten starts this year, the righty has a 3.29 ERA and a 4-1 record. He also has a 1.44 WHIP with 39 strikeouts through 52 innings. While Gil started off his season with an ugly start in August, he has since recovered with a solid ERA. Gil has given up 3+ runs only twice in his ten starts this year.
Orioles vs Yankees Pick
Spread Pick for Orioles vs Yankees
- Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (4 units)
It might be that I'm just a Yankee hater, but I trust Bradish more than I do Gil in this scenario. Bradish will look to use this final start to build for a positive 2026 and he is one of the best pitchers at striking out batters. For a team like the Yankees that strikes out a lot, Bradish is one of the worst matchups they could make for the final day. The Yankees may win even with the Orioles sending out Bradish to the mound, but I expect the game to be kept close.
Over/Under Pick for White Sox vs Guardians
- Under 8.5 Runs (4 units)
Baltimore doesn't exactly have enough motivation on offense for me to pick this game at over 8.5 runs. These two are 9-1 on the under in their last ten games, and Bradish is arguably Baltimore's best starter when healthy. Both starting pitchers have been solid during their limited time in action this season and both squads have hit the under in the majority of their contests. The losers in seven of their last eight meetings between these two teams have scored two runs or less. I expect the pressure to build as each inning trickles by. Additionally, should the Yankees get a lead early, they will prioritize maintaining that lead rather than running up the score.