Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Baltimore Orioles visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Friday, September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Baltimore enters at 78-81 overall and 39-39 on the road, while New York is 91-67 overall and 44-33 at home. The Orioles have won three straight, including both ends of a September 23 doubleheader against Toronto, while the Yankees are coming off a 9-2 win over Tampa Bay. New York has dominated this season series, winning eight of the first 10 meetings, and sits second in the AL East, five games behind Tampa Bay. Baltimore is fourth at 18.5 games back. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Baltimore is scheduled to start Trevor Rogers, who enters at 10-11 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 165.2 innings. Rogers has allowed 157 hits and 19 home runs while striking out 153 and issuing only 39 walks. New York counters with Will Warren, who is 10-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 152.1 innings. Warren has surrendered 156 hits and 21 homers while recording 151 strikeouts against 54 walks. The ERAs are nearly identical, but Rogers owns the stronger WHIP and walk rate, giving Baltimore a legitimate starting-pitching advantage despite New York holding the much stronger overall staff numbers.

Baltimore Arrives in New York on a Three-Game Winning Streak

Baltimore enters the series playing some of its better recent baseball. The Orioles dropped consecutive low-scoring games against Milwaukee, 1-0 and 3-0, before responding by winning three straight against Toronto. Baltimore won 4-3 on September 21 and then swept the September 23 doubleheader by identical 4-2 scores. The Orioles have climbed to 78-81 and have been exactly .500 at 39-39 away from home.

The season-long offensive numbers remain fairly modest. Baltimore is batting .233 with 705 runs, 1,233 hits and 194 home runs while carrying a .313 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. The pitching staff owns a 4.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, with opponents batting .252. Baltimore has issued 529 walks and recorded 1,282 strikeouts. The Orioles are also 49-47 in night games.

Baltimore's biggest concern in this matchup is its history against New York. The Orioles have lost eight of 10 meetings this season, and several of those defeats have been decisive. New York scored seven, nine, 11 and 12 runs in the first four meetings at Yankee Stadium. Baltimore has been pitching better recently, allowing only seven total runs during its three-game winning streak, but keeping that run prevention going against a Yankees offense with 221 home runs will be considerably more difficult.

New York Has the Pitching Edge and Home-Field Advantage

New York comes into Friday at 91-67 and owns a strong 44-33 record at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have been inconsistent over their last five, going 2-3, but Wednesday's 9-2 victory over Tampa Bay was an encouraging response after a 6-1 loss earlier in the series. New York remains firmly above Baltimore in the standings and has consistently controlled this head-to-head matchup throughout 2026.

The Yankees have produced 725 runs while batting .234 with 1,226 hits and 221 home runs. Their .311 on-base percentage is actually slightly below Baltimore's .313 mark, but New York holds a meaningful power advantage with a .410 slugging percentage. The bigger separation comes on the mound. New York owns an excellent 3.21 team ERA and 1.16 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .223 average. The staff has also generated 1,413 strikeouts against only 471 walks.

That pitching differential is difficult to overlook. Baltimore enters with the slightly better statistical starter for Friday, but New York has been substantially better at preventing runs across the entire season. The Yankees also have an 8-2 head-to-head advantage and have outscored Baltimore 58-27 across those 10 meetings. With the Orioles showing improved form, this may be more competitive than some earlier meetings, but New York still has the stronger overall profile.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

Baltimore's three-game winning streak and Rogers' 1.18 WHIP make the Orioles dangerous enough that this is not an automatic play on New York. Still, the larger body of evidence favors the Yankees. New York is 13 games better in the overall standings, has a winning record at Yankee Stadium and has taken eight of 10 from Baltimore this season. The most important difference is the pitching staff as a whole: New York's 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .223 opponent batting average are all substantially better than Baltimore's 4.08 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .252 opponent average. With the Yankees also holding a 221-194 advantage in home runs, New York has more paths to winning once the game moves beyond the starters.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The starting matchup points toward a potentially lower-scoring game than some of the earlier meetings between these teams. Rogers and Warren both carry ERAs just over 4.00, while Rogers has been particularly good at limiting baserunners with a 1.18 WHIP. Baltimore's offense has scored exactly four runs in each game of its three-game winning streak, and the Orioles were shut out in each of the two games immediately preceding that run. New York's season-long pitching numbers are even more convincing, with a 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. There is obvious home-run risk with New York, so the number matters, but Under 8.5 or better offers enough room for a game that projects closer to the middle single digits than another Yankee Stadium slugfest.

Final Picks: New York Yankees Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.