Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 27 2026

The Baltimore Orioles visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Sunday, September 27, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 3:20 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Baltimore enters at 79-82 overall and an even 40-40 on the road, while New York is 93-68 overall and 46-34 at home. The Yankees sit second in the AL East, 4.5 games behind Tampa Bay, while Baltimore is fourth at 18.5 games back. The teams split Friday's doubleheader, with Baltimore winning the opener 10-2 before New York responded with a 6-3 victory in the second game. The series is therefore tied 1-1 entering Sunday's finale. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Baltimore is scheduled to start Shane Baz, who enters at 6-15 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 179.2 innings. He has allowed 179 hits and 15 home runs while recording 154 strikeouts against 63 walks. New York counters with Elmer Rodriguez, who is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through 26.2 innings. He has surrendered 26 hits and two home runs while striking out 21 and walking 16. Baltimore has the advantage in terms of both experience and the available starting-pitching numbers. Rodriguez's 1.58 WHIP and 16 walks in fewer than 27 innings are particularly concerning against an Orioles offense that has recently generated consistent run production.

Orioles Bring Strong Recent Form Into the Finale

Baltimore enters Sunday at 79-82 and has won four of its last five completed games. The Orioles lost 6-3 in the second game of Friday's doubleheader but dominated New York 10-2 earlier in the day. Baltimore previously recorded consecutive 4-2 victories over Toronto after earning a 4-3 win against the Blue Jays. The Orioles have scored 25 runs while allowing only 15 across their last five games.

Baltimore is batting .234 with 718 runs, 1,257 hits and 199 home runs. The Orioles own a .314 on-base percentage and .396 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has recorded a 4.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 1,305 strikeouts against 535 walks while allowing opponents to bat .252.

The Orioles' biggest opportunity Sunday comes from the matchup against New York's scheduled starter. Baltimore has scored at least three runs in five consecutive games and has reached four or more in four of those contests. The Orioles have also hit 199 home runs this season, giving them enough power to capitalize if New York struggles with baserunners. Baltimore's overall offensive numbers are not elite, but the combination of recent form and Sunday's starting matchup gives the Orioles legitimate scoring potential.

Yankees Own a Major Full-Season Pitching Advantage

New York enters Sunday at 93-68 overall and has gone 3-2 across its last five completed games. The Yankees responded to Friday's 10-2 loss with a 6-3 victory later in the day. New York previously took two of three completed games against Tampa Bay, earning victories by scores of 6-4 and 9-2 around a 6-1 defeat. The Yankees have scored 24 runs across their last five contests.

New York is batting .235 with 739 runs, 1,250 hits and 223 home runs. The Yankees own a .311 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been one of their greatest strengths, producing a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 1,450 strikeouts against 488 walks while limiting opposing hitters to a .224 batting average.

The Yankees hold meaningful advantages in power and overall run prevention. New York has hit 24 more home runs and scored 21 more runs than Baltimore while producing a nearly identical batting average. The difference becomes much larger on the pitching side, where New York's 3.24 ERA is 0.84 runs better than Baltimore's 4.08. The Yankees have also allowed opponents to bat only .224. The primary concern is that Sunday's scheduled starter has not matched the performance of the staff as a whole, leaving New York more vulnerable than those season-long numbers initially suggest.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline

Baltimore gets the moneyline selection despite New York owning the significantly better overall record. This is a matchup where the individual starting pitchers matter enough to move away from the stronger season-long team. Baltimore's scheduled starter owns a 4.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP across nearly 180 innings, while New York counters with a starter carrying a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through only 26.2 innings. The Orioles have also won four of their last five completed games and already scored 10 runs at Yankee Stadium in Friday's opener. New York clearly has the better bullpen and overall pitching profile based on the supplied season statistics, but Baltimore has the more favorable starting matchup and enters in strong offensive form. That makes the Orioles the preferred side if the moneyline provides reasonable value.

Pick: Over 8.0 or Lower

The over is the preferred total if the market posts 8.0 or lower. The two games played Friday produced 12 and nine combined runs, and both offenses have shown recent scoring ability. Baltimore has produced 25 runs across its last five games, while New York has scored 24. The Yankees' scheduled starter enters with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and Baltimore's starter carries a 4.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. New York's excellent bullpen and full-season pitching numbers create some resistance, but Yankee Stadium will feature two offenses that have combined for 422 home runs this season. At eight or lower, there is enough offensive upside to make the over the preferred position.

Final Picks: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline and Over 8.0 or Lower

This preview was completed on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.