Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Picks for Saturday, September 27th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The New York Yankees (92-68) are looking to secure the A.L. East title, and they’ll try to inch closer to the milestone on Saturday when they take on the Baltimore Orioles (75-85). We’ve got you covered with our Orioles vs. Yankees prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 1:05 ET from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Orioles in the Cellar of the East
This has pretty much been a throwaway season for the Baltimore Orioles, as they endured some early-season injuries and were never able to overcome the ugly start. However, following a 15-32 start, the O’s have actually played more than .500 baseball. They’ve gone 60-53, which puts them at 75-85 overall heading into Saturday. It just speaks to the potential upside of their young core when healthy. In terms of recent form, the Orioles are on a solid 14-9 run over their last 23 games. Baltimore dropped Friday’s opener against New York in an 8-4 affair.
The pitching wasn’t sharp for the Orioles on Friday night, and it was Trevor Rogers (3.0 IP, 6 ER) who took the loss in the starter’s role. Offensively, Baltimore notched four runs on seven hits. Jordan Westburg had a big day, going 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBI.
- Tomoyuki Sugano gets the nod for the Orioles on Saturday, and the 35-year-old rookie hasn’t been overpowering this season.
- In 29 starts (152.2 IP), the right-hander has gone 10-9 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.
- Sugano just faced the Yankees last Saturday, and he gave up four earned runs on six hits and a walk over 3.0 innings.
- He took the loss in the 6-1 defeat, as the O’s dropped to 0-5 in his last five starts.
Yankees Competing For a Division Title
Meanwhile, the New York Yankees have endured injuries and adversity of their own in 2025, but the Bronx Bombers still find themselves battling for a division title. Heading into Saturday, the Yankees are 92-68, which puts them in a tie with the Blue Jays atop the division. It’s worth noting that Toronto has the tiebreaker should the teams be tied after 162 games. From a sports betting perspective, New York is priced at +135 to win the East and +800 to win the World Series. The Yankees have been rolling recently, going 9-1 in their last 10 games.
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Will Warren (5.0 IP, 4 ER) wasn’t overpowering for the Yankees on Friday night, but he pitched well enough to earn the win. The offense had a big day, and specifically, it was Giancarlo Stanton. He blasted a pair of home runs and drove in five RBI. Aaron Judge also homered and drove in two RBI.
- Cam Schlittler will oppose Sugano on Saturday afternoon, and the 24-year-old has looked sharp in 13 starts (66.0 IP) this season.
- The right-hander enters the weekend at 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
- Schlittler pitched last Sunday against the Orioles, and he limited them to only one earned run on three hits and a walk over 5.1 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in a game that the Yankees eventually won 7-1.
Orioles vs. Yankees Pick
Run Line Pick for Orioles vs. Yankees
- New York Yankees -1.5 (-108) (5 units)
This is a spot where I do not mind laying the 1.5 runs with the Yankees. First off, New York is still competing for a division title and potentially the top spot in the American League. They will be bringing their best effort and should have no issues taking care of an inferior opponent. The Yankees are in the midst of a 9-1 SU run, and they’ve won seven of those 10 games by multiple runs. They went 3-1 SU against the Orioles last weekend, and all three wins were by 5+ runs.
The Yankees should get the pitching here as well. Cam Schlittler just faced the O’s last weekend, and he held them to one earned run over 5.1 innings. He’ll take on an Orioles’ offense that’s just 24th in wOBA (.265) and 18th in ISO (.140) over the last seven days. New York has the path to win this game by 2+ runs.
Over/Under Pick for Orioles vs. Yankees
- Over 9.0 (+100) (5 units)
This is a lofty total, but I’m going to take an even-money shot and say we make it over the total. Mostly, I’m concerned with Baltimore’s pitching. The O’s will turn to Tomoyuki Sugano, and he has been underwhelming this season with a 4.54 ERA. In three starts against the Yankees this year, Sugano has posted a 5.40 ERA and they’re hitting .346 against him.
Baltimore’s bullpen has also been a liability this year. Specifically over the last 14 days, the O’s are 29th in relief ERA (6.61) and 30th in opposing batting average (.300). The Yankees are 11th in relief ERA (2.95) over the two weeks, so clearly they’re still not completely dialed in. Factor in that this game will also be played at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, and I think it’s best to play the over.
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