Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction for Thursday June 18 2026

The Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners continue their series on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on MLB.TV. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives Seattle a 57.0% chance to win compared to 43.0% for Baltimore. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more baseball coverage and predictions.

Starting Pitchers in Focus

Baltimore is expected to start Shane Baz in this matchup. He enters with a 4-6 record, a 4.06 ERA, and a 1.39 WHIP over 82.0 innings. He has allowed 82 hits, struck out 67 batters, walked 32, and given up eight home runs. Seattle is projected to counter with Bryan Woo, who comes into the game with a 5-5 record, a 4.28 ERA, and an impressive 1.04 WHIP across 82.0 innings. He has allowed 70 hits, recorded 79 strikeouts, issued just 15 walks, and surrendered nine home runs. While the ERAs are similar, Seattle's starter holds a significant edge in WHIP and walks allowed.

Baltimore Tries to Recover on the Road

The Orioles enter Thursday's contest with a 34-40 overall record and a 12-21 mark away from home. Baltimore has lost three of its last five games, recently losing to Seattle 3-1 and dropping two contests against San Diego by scores of 5-2 and 9-3. The Orioles did pick up victories against San Diego and Seattle during this stretch, but consistency has been difficult to find.

Baltimore is batting .241 as a team with 344 runs scored, 595 hits, and 86 home runs. The Orioles own a .322 on-base percentage and a .401 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, they carry a 4.57 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .260. The staff has also issued 262 walks and recorded 561 strikeouts.

One area where Baltimore has been productive is power hitting. The Orioles have hit 86 home runs and scored 344 runs, both figures exceeding Seattle's totals. However, the pitching staff has struggled more than Seattle's, posting a higher ERA, higher WHIP, and higher opponent batting average.

Seattle Looks to Capitalize at Home

Seattle enters the game with a 38-36 overall record and a 20-16 home record. The Mariners have won two of their last five games and are coming off a 3-1 victory over Baltimore. They also recently defeated Washington 10-2. Their losses during the stretch came against Washington twice and Baltimore once.

The Mariners are batting .237 with 314 runs scored, 584 hits, and 94 home runs. Seattle owns a .317 on-base percentage and a .395 slugging percentage. The pitching staff has been one of the team's strengths, producing a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .241 batting average. Seattle has also accumulated 637 strikeouts.

Seattle's biggest advantage is its pitching profile. The Mariners own a significantly lower ERA and WHIP than Baltimore while also allowing a much lower opponent batting average. The combination of strong run prevention and home-field advantage gives Seattle a favorable position entering this contest.

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Pick

• Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline

Seattle gets the nod in this matchup thanks to its stronger pitching numbers and home record. The Mariners have already picked up a 3-1 win over Baltimore in this series, and they hold advantages in ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and strikeouts. The projected starting pitcher also carries the better WHIP and control numbers, which further supports the home side.

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.0

Take the under if the total is set at 8.0. I like the under because Seattle owns a 3.65 team ERA and just held Baltimore to one run in the most recent meeting. The Mariners have also done a strong job limiting opponents throughout the season with a .241 opponent batting average. While Baltimore has shown power, the pitching matchup suggests runs may be harder to come by on Thursday.

Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners 4 – Baltimore Orioles 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Wednesday.