Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Wednesday August 26, 2026

The Baltimore Orioles travel to Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, to face the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Baltimore enters the matchup at 63-68 overall and 29-34 on the road, while St. Louis is 66-66 overall and 32-34 at home. The Orioles have won two of their last five games, while the Cardinals have dropped four of five and enter this series on a three-game losing streak.

There is very little separating these clubs statistically. Baltimore has scored 583 runs compared with 585 for St. Louis, both teams own a .317 on-base percentage, and their team ERAs are separated by only 0.05. ESPN's matchup projection reflects that balance, giving Baltimore a narrow 50.7% to 49.3% advantage. The starting pitching matchup could therefore become the deciding factor.

At the time of this writing the odds were not released.

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Starting Pitchers

Baltimore is expected to start Kyle Bradish, who enters at 7-12 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 138.2 innings. He has allowed 131 hits while recording 129 strikeouts and 60 walks, with 15 home runs surrendered. St. Louis counters with Michael McGreevy, who is 5-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 137.1 innings. He has allowed 130 hits but has issued only 36 walks while striking out 95 and allowing 18 home runs. The ERA difference is small, but McGreevy's considerably lower WHIP and walk total give St. Louis a modest efficiency advantage on the mound.

Orioles Look to Find More Offensive Consistency

Baltimore comes into Wednesday at 63-68 and sits fifth in the American League East. The Orioles are 29-34 on the road and have gone 2-3 over their last five games. They recently lost 3-1 and won 3-2 and 5-3 against Tampa Bay after suffering consecutive losses of 6-1 and 5-3 against New York. Four of those five games finished with eight combined runs or fewer.

The Orioles are batting .235 as a team with 1,020 hits, 583 runs and 159 home runs. They own a .317 on-base percentage and .396 slugging percentage. Baltimore's power numbers are stronger than St. Louis, with 22 more home runs and a 14-point advantage in slugging percentage, but that extra power has resulted in almost no difference in total run production.

Baltimore's pitching staff owns a 4.19 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .254. The Orioles have issued 435 walks and recorded 1,038 strikeouts. Their recent results suggest that keeping games manageable has not necessarily been the problem; generating enough consistent offence to capitalize has been more difficult.

Cardinals Try to End Their Slide at Busch Stadium

St. Louis enters at an even 66-66 and sits third in the National League Central. The Cardinals are only 32-34 at Busch Stadium, so home field has not provided the type of advantage they would normally want in such a closely matched contest. More concerning is their current form. St. Louis has lost four of its last five, including three straight against Philadelphia.

The Cardinals are hitting .241 with 1,069 hits, 585 runs and 137 home runs. Their .317 on-base percentage is identical to Baltimore's, while their .382 slugging percentage trails the Orioles. St. Louis has nevertheless scored two more runs despite hitting 22 fewer home runs, suggesting the Cardinals have not needed to rely as heavily on the long ball to manufacture their offence.

Pitching provides another small statistical advantage. St. Louis carries a 4.14 ERA compared with Baltimore's 4.19, although both clubs have identical 1.34 WHIPs. Opponents are batting .252 against Cardinals pitching compared with .254 against Baltimore. None of those margins are substantial, but McGreevy's 1.21 WHIP compared with Bradish's 1.38 gives St. Louis its most meaningful pitching advantage Wednesday.

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline

This matchup is close enough that the starting pitchers become especially important, and that produces a slight lean toward St. Louis. McGreevy owns a 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP compared with Bradish's 3.70 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, and the difference in control is significant: McGreevy has walked only 36 batters in 137.1 innings compared with 60 walks for Bradish in 138.2. Baltimore has the better recent record, but neither offence holds a meaningful advantage in run production, with the teams separated by only two runs for the entire season. In what projects as a tight matchup, the pick is the St. Louis Cardinals moneyline.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Neither club has been an elite run-producing team, and both starters enter with ERAs below 3.75. Baltimore has also played several low-scoring games recently, with four of its last five finishing at eight combined runs or fewer. St. Louis' recent games have been higher scoring, but the Cardinals' .382 team slugging percentage and Baltimore's .235 batting average leave enough offensive uncertainty to favour the pitching matchup. With McGreevy's strong control and Bradish having allowed only 15 home runs across 138.2 innings, Under 8.5 is the total pick.

This preview was completed on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, before play. Any lineup changes, pitching changes, injuries, scratches, or betting-line movement occurring after that time are not reflected in this analysis.