Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Friday September 11 2026

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game AL East series Friday, September 11, 2026, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Baltimore enters at 71-76 overall and 35-37 on the road, while Toronto is 73-74 overall and 37-35 at home. The Blue Jays lead the season series 4-3, but Baltimore comes in off a 9-5 victory while Toronto has dropped three of its last five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Baltimore is scheduled to start Chris Bassitt, who enters at 6-5 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.58 WHIP across 85.1 innings. He has allowed 102 hits and 33 walks while striking out 61 and surrendering nine home runs. Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, who is 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 62.2 innings. He has allowed 58 hits and 27 walks while recording 48 strikeouts and allowing 13 home runs. Baltimore owns the lower ERA in the starting matchup, while Toronto has the better WHIP, but neither starter enters with especially strong run-prevention numbers.

Baltimore Looks to Build on Its Latest Win

Baltimore enters Friday at 71-76 overall and 35-37 away from home. The Orioles are 2-3 over their last five games, but both victories came with solid offensive production. Baltimore beat Cleveland 9-5 in its most recent game and also earned a 6-4 win earlier in the stretch. Its three losses came by scores of 9-5, 3-1 and 5-0, showing a fairly wide range of recent offensive outcomes.

The Orioles are batting .234 with 661 runs, 1,146 hits and 176 home runs. Baltimore carries a .316 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 4.15 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while opponents are batting .253. The staff has issued 485 walks and recorded 1,182 strikeouts.

Baltimore's main edge is power and overall run production. The Orioles have scored 72 more runs than Toronto and hit 36 more home runs while also holding advantages in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The concern is run prevention, particularly with a .253 opponent batting average and a starting pitcher carrying a 1.58 WHIP. Baltimore has enough offense to take advantage of Toronto's vulnerable starter, but its own pitching profile leaves little margin for error.

Toronto Tries to Turn Home Field Into an Edge

Toronto enters the matchup at 73-74 overall and 37-35 at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are 2-3 over their last five games, with victories of 4-2 and 4-3 and losses of 2-0, 6-5 and 6-1. Four of those five games were decided by four runs or fewer, while Toronto was held to one run or fewer twice during the stretch.

The Blue Jays are batting .248 with 589 runs, 1,229 hits and 140 home runs. Toronto has posted a .309 on-base percentage and .383 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 3.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while holding opponents to a .236 batting average. The staff has issued 535 walks and recorded 1,268 strikeouts.

Toronto's biggest advantage is its stronger overall pitching profile. The Blue Jays own a lower team ERA, lower WHIP and much lower opponent batting average than Baltimore. They have also been slightly better at home than Baltimore has been on the road. The concern is an offense that has produced significantly fewer runs and home runs, while Friday's scheduled starter enters with a 6.03 ERA. Toronto's pitching staff is better over the full season, but this specific matchup creates enough uncertainty to make the side difficult.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction

Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline

The Baltimore Orioles Moneyline is the preferred side in this matchup. Toronto owns the stronger full-season pitching numbers and has home-field advantage, but Baltimore brings the more dangerous offensive profile and faces a scheduled starter with a 6.03 ERA. The Orioles have scored 72 more runs and hit 36 more home runs than Toronto while also carrying the higher on-base and slugging percentages. Baltimore's own starting numbers are far from dominant, but the offensive edge and recent 9-5 victory make the Orioles the better side at a reasonable moneyline price.

Pick: Over 8.5

Take the Over if the total is set at 8.5 or lower. Neither scheduled starter brings a strong ERA into Friday, with Baltimore's starter at 4.96 and Toronto's at 6.03. Baltimore has scored at least five runs in three of its last five games, including nine in its most recent outing, while Toronto has enough contact ability with a .248 team average to contribute against a vulnerable opposing starter. The full-season team pitching numbers favor Toronto, but the specific starting matchup points toward scoring. Over 8.5 is the preferred total if that number is available.

Final Picks: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline and Over 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.