Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions, Friday September 12, 2025
The 2025 MLB season has been full of surprises, and no two teams define that like this AL East matchup that we'll look into today with our Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.
The Baltimore Orioles (69-77) have been one of baseball's biggest letdowns in 2025, and while they've still got a bright future with their young core, their path back into contention in the AL East unfortunately isn't as clear as it once was.
On Friday they begin a weekend series with the Toronto Blue Jays (84-62), a team that have exploded in the second half of the season, and given the depth and balance of the team, there's a reason they're considered World Series contenders in the American League. Read on to see our Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.
Expected pitching matchup: LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Chris Bassitt.
Don’t go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Can the Orioles cause chaos in the AL East division race?
Given their poor start to the season, the Baltimore Orioles have long been eliminated from playoff contention, but with the team going 8-1 in their last nine overall games, they could cause chaos in the tight American League East race down the stretch. Despite taking strides forward in recent years, the Orioles rank 22nd in baseball in runs scored this season, and with the team ERA of 4.60 ranking them 24th, it's easy to see why this young team has taken a step back in 2025.
On the mound for Baltimore in this matchup will be veteran lefty Trevor Rogers, who has a dominant 1.51 ERA in 15 appearances this season, allowing just 63 hits over an incredibly impressive 95.2 innings of work. Last time out for the Orioles was a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates to complete the sweep, with two hits to Jackson Holliday leading the offense on the night as Cade Povich gave them a very solid 5.2 innings of two-run ball as they came away winners 3-2.
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Can the Blue Jays take another step towards clinching the AL East?
The Toronto Blue Jays stepped on the gas in the middle of the 2025 campaign, and they haven't slowed down since, with their impressive 47-25 home record this season giving them a slight 3.5 game lead over the Yankees in the American League East standings. While the Blue Jays' pitching has been solid, leading them to a 4.22 ERA on the season, it's the lineup that has driven their success, with the team ranking first in the league in batting average and sixth in runs scored as they're now set up as a genuine World Series threat.
In this one, Toronto turn to star right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has put up a solid 3.97 ERA in 29 starts for the Blue Jays this season, with the 36-year-old striking out a very solid 157 hitters over 161.0 innings of steady work for the team. Last time out for the Jays was a dominant win over the Houston Astros, with Davis Schneider and Addison Barger driving in two runs each as Kevin Gausman was fantastic, tossing a complete game two-hitter to lead them to a 6-0 shutout victory.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays pick
- Toronto -140 (5 units)
Coming into this matchup, it's surprising the Baltimore Orioles with a 6-4 advantage in the last 10 head-to-head matchups with the Toronto Blue Jays, with the two teams splitting the earlier series matchup this season in Toronto 2-2.
As of late, both of these teams have been absolutely rolling, but with the Blue Jays having the much more consistent team on both sides of the ball, expect them to start this series on the right foot with a big matchup.
Over/under pick for Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Over 8.5 (4 units)
The strength of both these teams in 2025 has been their lineups, and in their last 10 head-to-head encounters, the over is 8-2, with the combined average runs scored per game in that span being 12.
For the Orioles, the over sits at 4-6 in their last 10 overall games, with 23 runs allowed in their last four games played on the road, and for the Blue Jays, the over comes in at 5-5 in their past 10, with the team scoring exactly six runs per game during that stretch.
Keep it simple, take the over.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
