Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 6, 2025
In our Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks prediction, the Boston Red Sox are third in the AL East with a 78-63 record so far. They are having right-hander Lucas Giolito get the start as he is coming off a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates as he threw six innings and allowed one run on three hits with five walks and six strikeouts.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking to stay competitive as they are sitting in fourth place in the NL West with a 70-71 record entering this game. Young righty Brandon Pfaadt will be getting the start and is coming off a no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers where he allowed four runs on eight hits with one walk and five strikeouts in 4.1 innings.
Today’s edge: MLB predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks with form and matchup notes.
WRITTEN BEFORE FRIDAY’S GAME
Red Sox Ready to Roll
The Boston Red Sox are looking to continue swinging well as the team is eighth in the sport with a .751 team OPS while averaging 4.94 runs per game. They have been a good team hitting for power as they are 13th with 169 home runs hit. Shortstop Trevor Story has done well as he has a .741 OPS with 23 home runs, 88 RBI, 78 runs scored, and 25 stolen bases without being caught.
Lucas Giolito has been poorly according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 15th percentile in xERA, 19th percentile in xBA, 27th percentile in average exit velocity, and 29th percentile in barrel percentage. He has a four-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, changeup, curveball) and his fastball has been getting hit as hitters have a .271 batting average and .396 slugging percentage against it with five homers and 42 strikeouts. Giolito has not faced the Diamondbacks since 2016 so this will be a test for him.
Injury Report for Boston
- Pitcher Jordan Hicks: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Roman Anthony: Oblique (OUT)
- Third baseman Marcelo Mayer: Wrist (OUT)
- Pitcher Richard Fitts: Biceps (OUT)
- Right fielder Wilyer Abreu: Calf (OUT)
- Pitcher Luis Guerrero: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Tanner Houck: Flexor (OUT)
- Pitcher Hunter Dobbins: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Liam Hendriks: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Winckowski: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Triston Casas: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Kutter Crawford: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Patrick Sandoval: Elbow (OUT)
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Diamondbacks Looking to Compete
The Arizona Diamondbacks are doing an excellent job at the plate as they are fifth in the bigs with a .759 team OPS while scoring 4.88 runs per game. The team has been aggressive on the bases as their 103 stolen bases ranks 14th in MLB. Right fielder Corbin Carroll has been clicking at the plate as he has a .259/.335/.556 slash line with 29 homers, 71 RBI, 95 runs scored, and 24 steals on 28 tries.
Brandon Pfaadt is struggling this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page as he is in the second percentile in xBA, fourth percentile in xERA, eighth percentile in barrel percentage, and 15th percentile in average exit velocity. He has six different pitches (fastball, sinker, sweeper, changeup, curveball, cutter) and his sweeper has been getting hit as hitters have a .284 batting average and .509 slugging percentage with five home runs and 37 strikeouts. Pfaadt faced the Red Sox once back in 2023 in a losing effort as he pitched 3.2 innings and allowed five runs on eight hits with zero walks and four strikeouts.
Injury Report for Arizona
- First baseman Pavin Smith: Quadriceps (OUT)
- Left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Anthony DeSclafani: Thumb (OUT)
- Pitcher Kevin Ginkel: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Tommy Henry: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Christian Montes De Oca: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Martinez: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Corbin Burnes: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher AJ Puk: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Blake Walston: Elbow (OUT)
Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
Spread Pick for Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Boston Red Sox -137 (5 units)
Over the last seven starts, these pitchers are on two completely different levels as Lucas Giolito is 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 43.2 innings while Brandon Pfaadt is 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP in 35.1 innings. These relievers are performing at two different levels as the Red Sox are third in the sport with a 3.43 reliever ERA while the D-Backs are down at 26th with a 4.65 bullpen ERA right now. All in all, go with the Boston Red Sox to win on the road.
Over/Under Pick for Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Under (4 units)
The road/home splits for these starting pitchers show they can limit the amount of runs as Lucas Giolito is 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA and a .207 batting average against in 69.2 innings (12 road starts) while Brandon Pfaadt is 8-3 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 76.1 innings (14 home starts) thus far. In their last six games before this one, these teams are not scoring too many runs as Boston is averaging 4.5 runs per game while Arizona is scoring 3.83 runs per game. The under hit in three of the last five games between one another so take the under once again.
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