Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 3, 2026

The Boston Red Sox visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the first pitch at 7:15 PM ET, televised on MLB.TV/FOX. Boston is 75-64, third in the AL East and holds the second AL Wild Card spot, 4.5 games clear of the cutoff. The Red Sox are 2-3 over their last five after losing 9-6 to Seattle. Baltimore is 69-70, fourth in the AL East and 1.5 games behind the final Wild Card position. The Orioles are 4-1 over their last five despite Tuesday’s 4-2 loss at Colorado. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.

Boston Red Sox Try to Stabilize Their Pitching

Boston has scored 624 runs while batting .250 with a .323 on-base percentage, ranking seventh in MLB in batting average. Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Red Sox with a .282 average and 150 hits, while Willson Contreras has 26 home runs and 79 RBI. Boston has shown scoring power recently, producing nine runs in consecutive games against Seattle, but the Red Sox scored only nine total runs during their previous three games against the Yankees.

The pitching staff has been one of Boston’s strengths, ranking fourth in MLB with a 3.64 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Red Sox pitchers have held opponents to a .242 average and recorded 14 shutouts. Recent results have been less consistent, with Boston allowing 42 runs over its last four games. The Red Sox remain strong away from Fenway Park at 40-31, and their plus-82 run differential is considerably better than Baltimore’s minus-19 mark.

Injuries: Adley Rutschman is day-to-day. Johan Oviedo, Kutter Crawford, Zack Kelly and Justin Slaten are on the injured list.

Baltimore Orioles Push for a Wild Card Spot

Baltimore has won four of its last five games, with the only loss coming 4-2 at Colorado on Tuesday. The Orioles swept three games from the Athletics immediately before that series, scoring 17 runs during the sweep. Pete Alonso leads Baltimore with a .269 average, 32 home runs and 91 RBI. Gunnar Henderson has added 22 home runs, while Coby Mayo has 19. Baltimore ranks 25th in MLB with a .235 team batting average but has hit 169 home runs.

The Orioles have a 4.16 team ERA and 1.35 WHIP, both behind Boston’s marks. Baltimore pitchers have allowed opponents to bat .254 and have surrendered 1,205 hits through 139 games. The Orioles are 34-34 at Camden Yards and sit 1.5 games behind Cleveland for the final AL Wild Card position. Baltimore has also won four of the nine completed meetings with Boston this season, although the Red Sox hold a 5-4 advantage in the season series.

Injuries: Tyler O'Neill, Felix Bautista, Christian Franklin, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Mountcastle are on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup

Boston Red Sox - Jake Bennett

Jake Bennett is 9-6 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 93.2 innings. The left-hander has allowed 79 hits and only seven home runs while issuing 18 walks and recording 74 strikeouts. Bennett’s control stands out, and his WHIP is considerably lower than Boston’s already strong 1.24 team mark. His ability to limit baserunners should be important against a Baltimore lineup that has produced more power than consistent hitting this season.

Baltimore Orioles - Brandon Young

Brandon Young is 9-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 130.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 128 hits, 17 home runs and 46 walks while striking out 103. Young has worked significantly more innings than Bennett, but the difference in WHIP favors Boston’s starter. Young’s ERA is also well below Baltimore’s 4.16 team mark, making him an important part of the Orioles’ chances of keeping Boston’s lineup quiet.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Game Pick

• Boston Red Sox

Boston has the stronger season record, better road mark and clear advantage in team pitching. The Red Sox own a 3.64 ERA and 1.24 WHIP compared with Baltimore’s 4.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Boston is also 40-31 away from home and holds a plus-82 run differential, while Baltimore sits at minus-19. Jake Bennett adds another advantage with a 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Baltimore has played well recently, but the pick is Boston to win Thursday night at Camden Yards.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Over/Under Pick

• Under

The starting pitchers provide the strongest reason to expect a lower-scoring game Thursday. Jake Bennett owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, while Brandon Young has a 3.38 ERA through 130.1 innings. Boston also ranks fourth in MLB with a 3.64 team ERA and has recorded 14 shutouts. Baltimore has scored only four runs across its last two games, while Boston’s offense has been inconsistent despite two recent nine-run performances. With both starters posting strong ERAs, the under is the pick at Camden Yards.