Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Wednesday August 26, 2026

The Boston Red Sox travel to face the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, on Wednesday, August 26. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with coverage available on MLB.TV. Boston enters the matchup at 72-59 overall and 38-27 on the road, while Miami sits at 67-65 with an impressive 41-26 record at home.

Boston took Monday’s series opener 4-2 and enters this matchup riding a four-game winning streak. Miami had won three straight before that loss, so this is a matchup between two clubs that have both been playing solid baseball recently. The Red Sox remain six games back in the AL East, while the Marlins are 9.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East.

At the time of this writing the odds were not released.

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Starting Pitchers

Boston is expected to start Sonny Gray, who enters Wednesday at 16-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 138.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 125 hits while recording 123 strikeouts against 36 walks, and he has surrendered 15 home runs. Gray’s season has been excellent from both a run-prevention and control standpoint, and his ability to limit baserunners gives Boston a clear advantage on the mound.

Miami counters with Ryan Gusto, who enters at 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 57.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 62 hits while striking out 51 and walking 15, with eight home runs surrendered. Gusto has been respectable in terms of control, but the higher ERA and WHIP create a significant gap compared with Gray. That difference gives Boston one of the stronger starting-pitching edges on Wednesday’s slate.

Red Sox Carry Strong Momentum into Miami

Boston enters Wednesday at 72-59 overall and has been excellent on the road at 38-27. The Red Sox have won four straight games, beating Miami 4-2 after completing a three-game sweep of San Francisco by scores of 6-4, 3-2 and 5-4. Their recent run has been built on consistency rather than blowouts, which is often a good sign heading into a road matchup.

The Red Sox are batting .251 with 1,103 hits, 593 runs and 133 home runs. They carry a .324 on-base percentage and .407 slugging percentage. Boston has also been very strong on the mound, posting a 3.50 team ERA and 1.22 WHIP while holding opponents to a .239 batting average.

The biggest advantage for Boston is the combination of recent form and starting pitching. The Red Sox have the stronger overall pitching numbers and the better projected starter, while also carrying a winning road record. That gives Boston multiple paths to controlling the game even against a Miami club that has played very well at home.

Marlins Rely on Home-Field Strength

Miami enters the matchup at 67-65 overall and 41-26 at loanDepot park. The Marlins had won three straight games before Monday’s loss, defeating Washington 3-2, 4-2 and 6-2. That home record stands out and makes Miami far more dangerous than its overall season record might suggest.

The Marlins are batting .249 with 1,092 hits, 575 runs and 133 home runs. They own a .327 on-base percentage and .401 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while holding opponents to a .231 batting average.

Miami’s biggest strength is its ability to remain competitive at home, but Wednesday’s starting-pitching matchup presents a challenge. The Marlins have the slightly better on-base percentage and have matched Boston’s home run total, but the Red Sox own the better team ERA, WHIP and overall record. Miami will need to maximize its home-field edge to offset that disadvantage.

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline

Boston is the preferred side because of the combination of Gray’s strong season, the Red Sox’s recent winning streak and their solid road record. Gray enters with a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP compared with Gusto’s 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, creating a clear advantage in the opening innings. Boston also owns the better team ERA and WHIP and has won four straight. Miami’s 41-26 home record makes this a tougher matchup than the overall records suggest, but Boston still has enough edges to back the Red Sox on the moneyline.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5 or higher. Boston has allowed four runs or fewer in each game during its current four-game winning streak, while Miami’s last four games have produced combined totals of six, eight, six and six runs. Gray’s 2.79 ERA and Boston’s 3.50 team ERA create a strong foundation for a lower-scoring game, while Miami’s offense has been productive without being explosive. Gusto’s higher ERA adds some risk, but the recent scoring environment and Boston’s pitching edge point toward the under.

This preview was completed prior to game play on Tuesday. Any lineup changes, pitching changes, injuries, scratches, or betting-line movement occurring after that time are not reflected in this analysis.