Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 10, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Boston Red Sox head to Citi Field in Queens, New York, to take on the New York Mets on Friday, July 10, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM ET, and the game will be televised on MLB.TV and Apple TV. Boston enters the matchup with a 42-48 overall record and a 25-21 road mark, while New York is 39-54 overall with a 20-25 home record. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Mets a 53.7% chance to win, while the Red Sox are at 46.3%. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.
Starting Pitchers
Boston is expected to send Sonny Gray to the mound. Gray enters Friday’s contest with a 10-1 record, a 2.61 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP over 89.2 innings. He has allowed 76 hits, struck out 82 batters, walked 23, and surrendered 10 home runs. The Mets are projected to counter with Nolan McLean, who owns a 6-5 record with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 101.1 innings. McLean has allowed 76 hits, recorded 118 strikeouts, walked 37 batters, and given up 10 home runs. Both starters have been productive this season, although Gray enters with the lower ERA and stronger win-loss record.
Boston Brings Outstanding Momentum Into New York
The Red Sox come into this series with a 42-48 overall record, but they have been one of the hotter teams recently. Boston owns a 25-21 road record and has won each of its last five games. During that stretch, the Red Sox recently won over the White Sox twice and recently won over the Angels three times. That winning streak gives Boston plenty of confidence entering Friday night’s opener.
Boston is batting .245 as a team while scoring 370 runs on 739 hits. The Red Sox have hit 80 home runs while posting a .314 on-base percentage and a .388 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been a strength, producing a 3.70 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .239 batting average. Boston has also recorded 768 strikeouts and issued 263 walks, along with a 12-22 record in day games.
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The Red Sox have relied heavily on their pitching. Boston owns the better ERA and WHIP compared to New York while matching the Mets with a .239 opponent batting average. Combined with the current five-game winning streak, that pitching profile gives Boston a solid foundation heading into this matchup.
New York Looks to Continue Its Offensive Production
The Mets enter Friday’s contest with a 39-54 overall record and a 20-25 record at Citi Field. They have played competitive baseball lately, winning three of their last five games. New York recently won over Kansas City, recently lost to Kansas City, recently won over Atlanta twice, and recently lost to Atlanta.
The Mets are batting .234 with 387 runs, 732 hits, and 108 home runs. They own a .303 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. On the mound, New York has compiled a 4.38 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .239. The Mets have also recorded 851 strikeouts compared to 336 walks, posting an 18-20 record in day games.
One of New York’s biggest strengths has been its power production. Despite batting .234 as a team, the Mets have hit 108 home runs, significantly more than Boston’s total of 80. That ability to score with one swing helps keep New York competitive even when base runners are limited.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Boston gets my pick in this matchup. The Red Sox enter on a five-game winning streak, have the stronger road record, own the better team ERA and WHIP, and send the starter with the lower ERA and better record to the mound. While the Mets have the slight edge in ESPN’s Matchup Predictor and more home run production, Boston’s recent form and pitching statistics provide the stronger overall case.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
I’m taking the under if the total is set at 8.5. Boston’s pitching staff has been one of the better units statistically in this matchup with a 3.70 ERA, and both projected starters have ERAs below 4.00. I think those numbers point toward a game where runs are harder to come by than the offenses would prefer.
Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 4 – New York Mets 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.
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