Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for July 11, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Boston Red Sox will travel to Citi Field in Queens, New York, for a Saturday afternoon matchup against the New York Mets. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET on July 11, 2026, with coverage available on MLB.TV and FS1. Boston enters the game with a 43-48 record and an impressive 26-21 mark on the road, while the Mets are 40-54 overall and 21-25 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Boston has not yet announced a starting pitcher for Saturday’s game. The Mets are scheduled to start Freddy Peralta, who enters with a 5-7 record, a 4.68 ERA, and a 1.42 WHIP across 100.0 innings. He has allowed 103 hits while striking out 98 batters and issuing 39 walks. Peralta has also surrendered 14 home runs this season. With Boston’s starter still listed as undecided, the only supplied pitching statistics belong to the Mets.
Boston Carries Plenty of Momentum Into New York
The Red Sox enter Saturday with a 43-48 overall record and an outstanding 26-21 road record. Boston has won five consecutive games. The Red Sox recently swept a three-game series against the White Sox with victories by scores of 2-1, 5-0, and 8-1. Before that, they also defeated the Angels 7-5 and 8-1 to complete a perfect five-game stretch.
Boston is batting .244 with 743 hits, 372 runs, and 81 home runs. The Red Sox own a .314 on-base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has produced a 3.67 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP while recording 777 strikeouts and limiting opponents to a .239 batting average. Boston has gone 13-22 in day games.
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The biggest strength for Boston has been its pitching. The Red Sox own the better ERA and WHIP compared with the Mets while allowing opponents to hit just .239. During their current five-game winning streak, Boston has allowed only nine total runs, reflecting the consistency that has fueled this recent surge.
New York Looks to Keep Its Winning Run Going
The Mets come into this matchup with a 40-54 overall record and a 21-25 record at Citi Field. New York has gone 4-1 over its last five contests. The Mets recently defeated Kansas City by scores of 7-3 and 6-2 after dropping a 16-12 decision in the series opener. Prior to that, New York earned consecutive extra-inning and one-run victories over Atlanta by scores of 7-6 and 10-9.
The Mets are batting .235 with 742 hits, 394 runs, and 110 home runs. They have posted a .304 on-base percentage and a .383 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 860 strikeouts and an opposing batting average of .239.
New York’s biggest advantage comes from its power. The Mets have hit 110 home runs this season compared with Boston’s 81. They have also scored more runs despite posting a lower batting average. The challenge has been run prevention, as the Mets enter with a higher ERA and WHIP than the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Boston is my preferred side based strictly on the supplied information. The Red Sox have won five straight games, own the better road record at 26-21, and have the stronger team pitching numbers with a 3.67 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Although the matchup predictor gives a slight edge to New York, Boston’s recent form and season-long pitching performance outweigh that projection. The Mets have also played well recently, but the Red Sox enter this contest as the hotter team.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Total Pick
- Take the under if the total is set at 8.5.
I would lean toward the under if the total is set at 8.5. Boston’s pitching staff has been one of the better units in this matchup, carrying a 3.67 ERA while allowing opponents to bat just .239. The Red Sox have also surrendered only nine runs during their current five-game winning streak. While the Mets have shown more power throughout the season, Boston’s recent pitching performance makes me favor a lower-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 5 – New York Mets 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.
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