Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday July 12, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Boston Red Sox and New York Mets meet on Sunday, July 12, 2026, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET, with television coverage on MLB.TV. Boston enters the matchup with a 44-48 overall record and an impressive 27-21 road record, while the Mets are 40-55 overall and 21-26 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Mets a slight 52.3% chance of winning compared to Boston’s 47.7%. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Boston is scheduled to start Payton Tolle, who enters with a 5-6 record, a 3.14 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP over 80.1 innings. The left-hander has allowed 62 hits and eight home runs while striking out 80 and walking 24. The Mets have not yet announced a starting pitcher for this matchup. Tolle has been effective this season, limiting baserunners while posting a strong ERA and WHIP across his 80.1 innings of work.
Boston Carries Winning Momentum Into Queens
The Red Sox come into Sunday’s contest with a 44-48 overall record, but they have been much stronger away from home, compiling a 27-21 road record. Boston has won each of its last five games. The Red Sox recently defeated the Mets 6-2 after sweeping a three-game series against the White Sox by scores of 2-1, 5-0, 8-1, and picking up a 7-5 win over the Angels. That winning streak has given Boston positive momentum entering the series finale.
Boston is batting .245 with 378 runs, 754 hits, and 83 home runs while carrying a .315 on-base percentage and a .389 slugging percentage. The pitching staff has posted a 3.65 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and has held opponents to a .240 batting average. The Red Sox have struck out 780 hitters while issuing 265 walks. They are 13-22 in day games.
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The Red Sox have leaned heavily on their pitching throughout the season. Boston owns a lower ERA, lower WHIP, and lower opponent batting average than the Mets. Although the offense has produced fewer runs and home runs than New York, the Red Sox have consistently limited opposing offenses and have backed that up with five straight victories.
New York Tries to Bounce Back at Home
The Mets enter this matchup with a 40-55 overall record and a 21-26 mark at Citi Field. They are 3-2 over their last five games despite dropping Friday’s opener against Boston by a 6-2 score. Before that loss, New York earned consecutive wins over Kansas City by scores of 7-3 and 6-2. The Mets also split the first two games of that series after a 16-12 loss and after getting a 7-6 extra-inning victory over Atlanta.
The Mets are batting .235 with 396 runs, 752 hits, and 111 home runs. They own a .304 on-base percentage and a .384 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, New York has a 4.32 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .239. The Mets have recorded 870 strikeouts and issued 342 walks. They are 19-20 in day games.
New York’s biggest offensive advantage is its power production. The Mets have hit 111 home runs compared to Boston’s 83, giving them a significant edge in that category. However, they have scored only 18 more runs despite the difference in home runs, while their pitching staff has posted a higher ERA and WHIP than Boston throughout the season.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Boston is my moneyline selection based on its recent form and stronger pitching profile. The Red Sox have won five consecutive games, including Friday’s 6-2 victory over the Mets, and they also own an excellent 27-21 road record. Boston’s team ERA of 3.65 and 1.23 WHIP compare favorably to New York’s 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Even though the matchup predictor slightly favors the Mets, I believe Boston’s current momentum and season-long pitching numbers make the Red Sox the better play.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Total Pick
- Pick: Take the under if the total is set at 8.0
I would take the under if the total is set at 8.0. Boston enters with a 3.65 team ERA and is starting a pitcher who owns a 3.14 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The Red Sox have also allowed only two total runs in their last three victories over the White Sox and Mets. While New York has hit 111 home runs this season, Boston’s pitching has consistently been the stronger unit, making the under my preferred play at this number.
Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 5 – New York Mets 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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