Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Thursday, October 2, 2025
In our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, the Boston Red Sox are the second AL Wild Card team as they finished the regular season with an 89-73 record so far. Rookie left-hander Connelly Early gets the start as he is coming off a loss against the Detroit Tigers, where he allowed two runs on four hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in five innings of work.
The New York Yankees ended the season on a hot note, but failed to win the AL East as they captured the top AL Wild Card spot. They hold the top AL Wild Card spot with a 94-68 record entering this game. Rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler takes the ball for Game 3. He secured the win last time out against the Baltimore Orioles, where he pitched seven shutout innings and gave up two hits with two hit by pitches, one walk, and nine strikeouts.
First pitch focus — MLB picks for Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees that cut through the noise.
Red Sox Have Backs Against the Wall
The Boston Red Sox have been performing less effectively at the plate so far this postseason, ranking third in the playoffs with a .637 team OPS, while averaging 3.0 runs per game. The team has been patient at the plate as their nine walks lead the playoffs so far. Shortstop Trevor Story has had a good start to the playoffs as he has gone 4-for-9 with a home run, three RBI, and stole a base without being caught.
Connelly Early is the sixth-ranked prospect in the Boston Red Sox system and has not factored into the percentile rankings on his Baseball Savant page. He had a 2.28 xERA, .205 xBA, 4.4 barrel percentage, and 87.9 MPH average exit velocity. He has a six-pitch arsenal (fastball, curveball, changeup, sinker, slider, sweeper) and his fastball has been his best pitch as hitters went 3-for-17 against it with zero extra-base hits and eight strikeouts. This will be Early’s first career appearance against New York.
Injury Report for Boston
- Pitcher Brennan Bernardino: Lat (OUT)
- Second baseman Vaughn Grissom: Foot (OUT)
- Pitcher Dustin May: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Hicks: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Roman Anthony: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Richard Fitts: Biceps (OUT)
- Pitcher Luis Guerrero: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Tanner Houck: Flexor (OUT)
- Pitcher Lucas Giolito: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Hunter Dobbins: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Liam Hendriks: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Winckowski: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Triston Casas: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Kutter Crawford: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Patrick Sandoval: Elbow (OUT)
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Yankees Looking to Stay Hot
The New York Yankees are performing a lesser job at the plate, ranking second in the majors during the playoffs with a .664 team OPS, while scoring 2.5 runs per game. The team has been hitting homers at a mediocre level as they are tied with the Chicago Cubs for third place with two total home runs hit. First baseman Ben Rice has gotten off to a great start in the playoffs as he has gone 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBI thus far.
Cam Schlitter pitched at an okay level during the season when diving into his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 82nd percentile in strikeout percentage, 68th percentile in xBA, 57th percentile in whiff percentage, and 57th percentile in average exit velocity. He has five different pitches (fastball, cutter, curveball, sinker, sweeper) and his fastball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .176 batting average and .279 slugging percentage with three home runs and 50 strikeouts against it. Schlittler will be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his young career.
Injury Report for New York
- Pitcher Brent Headrick: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Jonathan Loaisiga: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Clarke Schmidt: Forearm (OUT)
- Third baseman Oswaldo Cabrera: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Jake Cousins: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Gerrit Cole: Elbow (OUT)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Pick
Money Line Wild Card Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- New York Yankees -182 (5 units)
The New York Yankees should have the advantage in Game 3 of this AL Wild Card series as they seemingly are in a better position. The Red Sox used six different relievers in Game 2 and that includes having Garrett Whitlock throw 47 pitches, which essentially knocks him out of being available for this game. With two rookie starting pitchers for Game 3, the bullpens are going to be important and it seemed Red Sox manager Alex Cora was trying to avoid a Game 3 situation with the way he managed Game 2. With two rookie starters for this matchup, expect the bullpens to get involved so take the New York Yankees to record the victory.
Over/Under Game 3 Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- UNDER (4 units)
These lineups have not seen the starting pitchers in their young careers, so the pitching should have an early advantage. These lineups are also struggling to produce when they have runners in scoring position, as the Yankees have gone 2-for-14 through the two games, while Boston is 4-for-14 in those at-bats. Both bullpens are going to be tasked with getting outs, but with the lineups not producing too many runs so far in the first two AL Wild Card games, go with the UNDER as the better bet to make here.
