Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Use Code SSWC In our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, the Boston Red Sox are the second AL Wild Card team as they finished the regular season with an 89-73 record so far. They are having young left-hander Garrett Corchet get the start as he is coming off a victory over the Toronto Blue Jays where he pitched eight shutout innings and allowed three hits with zero walks and six strikeouts.
The New York Yankees ended the season on a hot note, but failed to win the AL East as they captured the top AL Wild Card spot. They hold the top AL Wild Card spot with a 94-68 record entering this game. Left-hander Max Fried takes the ball and secured the win last time out against the Chicago White Sox where he pitched seven innings and gave up one run on four hits with two walks and seven strikeouts.
Dial in your read with MLB picks for Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees before the first pitch after 6pmET.
Red Sox Looking to Take Game 1
The Boston Red Sox have been a solid offensive team, ranking ninth in the sport with a .745 team OPS, while averaging 4.85 runs per game. Boston has been aggressive on the bases as they are sixth in baseball with 139 stolen bases while being caught 38 times. Left fielder Jarren Duran has been hitting at a respectable level as he has a .774 OPS with 16 home runs, 84 RBI, 86 runs scored, and 24 steals while being caught six times.
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Garrett Crochet has been dominant according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage, 90th percentile in chase percentage, 90th percentile in xERA, and 87th percentile in walk percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, cutter, sweeper, sinker, changeup) and his sweeper has been his best pitch as hitters have a .126 batting average and .207 slugging percentage with three home runs and 89 strikeouts. Crochet faced the Yankees four times in the regular season as he was 3-0 in 27.1 innings and allowed 10 runs on 20 hits with four walks and 39 strikeouts
Injury Report for Boston
- Pitcher Brennan Bernardino: Lat (OUT)
- Second baseman Vaughn Grissom: Foot (OUT)
- Pitcher Dustin May: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Hicks: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Roman Anthony: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Richard Fitts: Biceps (OUT)
- Pitcher Luis Guerrero: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Tanner Houck: Flexor (OUT)
- Pitcher Lucas Giolito: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Hunter Dobbins: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Liam Hendriks: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Winckowski: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Triston Casas: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Kutter Crawford: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Patrick Sandoval: Elbow (OUT)
Yankees Looking to Stay Hot
The New York Yankees are doing an amazing job at the plate as they are the best in the bigs with a .787 team OPS while scoring 5.24 runs per game. The team has been the best in the majors with 274 total home runs hit. Right fielder Aaron Judge has been swinging the bat at an incredible level as he is posting a .331/.457/.688 slash line with 53 home runs, 114 RBI, 137 runs scored, and 12 steals while being caught five times.
Max Fried is pitching extremely well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity, 76th percentile in xERA, 76th percentile in walk percentage, and 76th percentile in hard hit percentage. He has seven different pitches (cutter, sinker, curveball, fastball, changeup, slider) and his curveball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .190 batting average and .293 slugging percentage with three home runs and 49 strikeouts. Fried faced the Red Sox three times this season as he went 1-1 in 18.1 innings and gave up four runs on 19 hits with seven walks and 22 strikeouts.
Injury Report for New York
- Second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr: Forearm (Questionable)
- Pitcher Brent Headrick: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Jonathan Loaisiga: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Clarke Schmidt: Forearm (OUT)
- Third baseman Oswaldo Cabrera: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Jake Cousins: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Gerrit Cole: Elbow (OUT)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Pick
Mone Line Wild Card Pick for Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
- New York Yankees -149 (5 units)
The New York Yankees have been on fire in the last six weeks of the regular season to finish tied for the best record in the American League. The Yankees finished 4-9 against the Red Sox, but were able to win two of the three games they played in September against one another in Fenway Park. When diving into the last seven starts, these pitchers are showing a bit of a divide as Garrett Crochet is 5-0 with a 3.13 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 46.0 innings while Max Fried is 6-0 with a 1.55 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 46.1 innings during that stretch. There is also a gap when looking at how these offenses are hitting with runners in scoring position this season as the Red Sox finished tied with the Atlanta Braves for 16th place with a .748 team OPS with runners in scoring position while the Yankees are fifth with a .785 team OPS in those at-bats. The Yankees are home for a reason so go with them to go 1-0 in the best-of-three AL Wild Card series.
Over/Under Pick for Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
- UNDER (4 units)
Garrett Crochet and Max Fried are going to step up and dominate, as Game 1 pitchers in a playoff series typically do. These pitching staffs in the month of September have been able to limit runs as the Red Sox are 10th with a 3.81 team ERA while the Yankees are 11th with a 3.85 team ERA in the final month of the regular season. The under has hit in six of the last 10 games against one another so take the UNDER here.
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