Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, October 1, 2025
In our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, the Boston Red Sox are the second AL Wild Card team as they finished the regular season with an 89-73 record so far. However, they were able to record a win in Game 1 with a 3-1 win on Tuesday. Young right-hander Brayan Bello gets the start as he is coming off a loss against the Toronto Blue Jays, where he pitched five innings and allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits with two hit by pitches, three walks, and three strikeouts.
The New York Yankees ended the season on a hot note, but failed to win the AL East as they captured the top AL Wild Card spot. They hold the top AL Wild Card spot with a 94-68 record entering this game. They lost Game 1 and are now are facing elimination in Game 2. Left-hander Carlos Rodon takes the ball and secured the win last time out against the Chicago White Sox, where he pitched six innings and gave up three runs on four hits with one hit by pitch, one walk, and five strikeouts.
Cover the diamond — MLB picks for the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees prediction.
Red Sox One Win Away From ALDS
The Boston Red Sox have been a solid offensive team as they are ninth in the sport with a .745 team OPS while averaging 4.85 runs per game during the regular season. Boston has been aggressive on the bases as they are sixth in baseball with 139 stolen bases while being caught 38 times. Third baseman Alex Bregman started the playoffs on a good foot as he was 2-for-4 with a double, a RBI, and a walk. Starter Garrett Chrochet go the win on Tuesday, dominating the New York bats, holding them to four hits and one run in 7.2 innings with 11 strikeouts.
Brayan Bello has struggled this season, according to his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 13th percentile in whiff percentage, 16th percentile in strikeout percentage, 25th percentile in xBA, and 30th percentile in xERA. He has a five-pitch arsenal (sinker, sweeper, cutter, changeup, fastball) and his fastball has been getting hit the most as hitters have a .271 batting average and .447 slugging percentage with two home runs and 13 strikeouts against it. Bello faced the Yankees three times in the regular season, as he was 2-1 in 19.0 innings and allowed four runs on 11 hits with one hit by pitch, seven walks, and 17 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Boston
- Pitcher Brennan Bernardino: Lat (OUT)
- Second baseman Vaughn Grissom: Foot (OUT)
- Pitcher Dustin May: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Hicks: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Roman Anthony: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Richard Fitts: Biceps (OUT)
- Pitcher Luis Guerrero: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Tanner Houck: Flexor (OUT)
- Pitcher Lucas Giolito: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Hunter Dobbins: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Liam Hendriks: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Winckowski: Elbow (OUT)
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Yankees Looking to Keep Their Season Alive
The New York Yankees are doing an amazing job at the plate as they are the best in the bigs with a .787 team OPS while scoring 5.24 runs per game. The team has been the best in the majors with 274 total home runs hit. Shortstop Anthony Volpe had the team’s only offense in Game 1 as he went 2-for-3 with a solo home run and forced an automatic advancement to second base by forcing three throws over to first base. Max Fried had a strong 6.1 innings, holding Boston to just four hits and no runs, but Luke Weaver struggled in relief, allowing two runs and two hits, while not getting one batter out.
Carlos Rodon is pitching well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 85th percentile in xBA, 84th percentile in whiff percentage, 79th percentile in xERA, and 74th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has six different pitches (fastball, slider, changeup, sinker, curveball, cutter) and his slider has been his best pitch as hitters have a .133 batting average and .231 slugging percentage with five home runs and 98 strikeouts. Rodon faced the Red Sox three times this season as he went 1-2 in 15.2 innings and allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 11 hits with three hit by pitches, 10 walks, and 12 strikeouts.
Injury Report for New York
- Second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr: Forearm (Questionable)
- Pitcher Brent Headrick: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Jonathan Loaisiga: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Clarke Schmidt: Forearm (OUT)
- Third baseman Oswaldo Cabrera: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Jake Cousins: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Gerrit Cole: Elbow (OUT)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Pick
Money Line Wild Card Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- New York Yankees ML (4 units)
The Boston Red Sox may have won Game 1, but the New York Yankees looked like they were in a good position to win. They had bases loaded and nobody out in the ninth inning and continued to get good at-bats throughout the game. Now, they are going to be able to avoid a righty stack lineup as Brayan Bello does not have those same splits. Aroldis Chapman threw 24 pitches over 1.1 innings in Game 1, so there is a chance that he is not going to be available. The Yankees have Carlos Rodon, one of the top pitchers in MLB this season in limiting the amount of hits. All in all, go with the New York Yankees to win this game and force a win-or-go-home Game 3.
Over/Under Game 2 Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Under (4 units)
The under is the better play for this game as these teams combined to go 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position. Both starting pitchers have looked well in the previous seven starts of the regular season as Brayan Bello was 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 38.2 innings while Carlos Rodon is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 42.2 innings during that span. With the pressure on, the Yankees are going to send their top relievers to the mound in Game 2 and should do better than they did (outside of Devin Williams). Go with the under as the better bet for this game here.
