Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks for Friday, September 19th, 2025
The MLB action continues on Friday with a series-opening matchup between the Boston Red Sox (83-70) and the Tampa Bay Rays (75-78), and we’ve got you covered with our Red Sox vs. Rays prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:35 ET from Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Red Sox Holding On in the Wild Card
When factoring in the roster turnover and wild swings that this team has endured, it has been a strange season for the Boston Red Sox. However, Boston, which sits at 83-70, is competing for a playoff spot down the stretch. The divisional race (6.0 GB of Toronto) is likely out of the question, but the Red Sox do possess the final wild card spot. They have a slim 1.5-game cushion over the Guardians, who are the first team out. Boston is currently priced at +2000 to win the World Series.
The Red Sox are coming off of a losing series at home against the Athletics, which includes Thursday’s 5-3 defeat. Brayan Bello (4.0 IP, 3 ER) took the loss in the starter’s role. Offensively, Boston managed only seven hits. Trevor Story and David Hamilton each homered in the loss.
- Garrett Crochet gets the nod for Friday series opener, and the 26-year-old is putting together a Cy Young-caliber campaign.
- The left-hander is 16-5 with a 2.63 ERA (fourth) and a 1.05 WHIP (10th). His 240 strikeouts are the most in the Majors.
- Crochet is coming off of a quality start against the Yankees on Sunday, where he limited them to three earned runs on five hits and a walk over 6.0 innings.
- He picked up the win in the 6-4 victory, as the Red Sox moved to 5-0 in his last five starts.
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Rays Win a Series vs. the Blue Jays
The Tampa Bay Rays are always a feisty team that you have to look out for. But it appears that Tampa won’t be making a postseason push in 2025. They enter the weekend at 75-78, which puts them 14.0 games out of the divisional race and 8.0 games out of the wild card. The Rays are just 4-9 in their last 13 games, but they are coming off of a home series victory over the division-leading Blue Jays (L: 6-5, W: 2-1, W: 4-0).
Thursday’s 4-0 shutout win over the Jays saw Shane Baz turn in an excellent start. He allowed only two hits and a walk while earning the win. Offensively, Chandler Simpson logged a 3-for-4 day with two RBI, while Carson Williams went 2-for-4 with two runs scored and a home run.
- Drew Rasmussen will oppose Crochet on Friday, and the 30-year-old has sneakily been one of the better pitchers in the MLB this season.
- In 29 starts (144.2 IP), the right-hander has gone 10-5 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
- Rasmussen last pitched on Saturday against the Cubs, giving up three earned runs on four hits and three walks over 5.0 innings.
- He took his fifth consecutive no-decision in the 5-4 win over Chicago.
Red Sox vs. Rays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-130) (5 units)
We have a Cy Young frontrunner toeing the rubber for Boston, and the oddsmakers are only going to ask us to lay a -130 price tag? Sign me up! I will ride with Garrett Crochet and his 2.63 ERA and league-leading 240 strikeouts in this game.
Boston will be running into Drew Rasmussen, who has been great this year with a 2.74 ERA. However, the Red Sox have seen him well in the past, as their current roster is slashing .312/.353/.500 against him over 32 at-bats. Over the last seven days, Boston has been better in both wOBA (.300 vs. .290) and K% (19.4% vs. 24.9%). Factor in that the Rays are just 4-9 SU in their last 13 games, and like I was alluding to, I’m kind of scratching my head about why we’re getting such a favorable price. Give me Boston.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Under 7.0 (+100) (5 units)
While Boston has been the better offense lately, neither of these teams has been great from an overall offensive standpoint. The Red Sox are just 30th in wOBA (.300) and 23rd in ISO (.118), while the Rays are 23rd (.290) and 22nd (.125) in those respective categories. It’s really the lack of power that has me confident in pulling the trigger on such a low total.
That, and the fact that we have Crochet on the bump. He has held the Rays’ current roster to a slash line of just .059/.059/.059 over 17 at-bats. I’m taking the under in this series opener on Friday night.
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