Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks for Saturday, September 20th, 2025
The MLB action continues on Saturday with a pivotal matchup between the Boston Red Sox (84-70) and the Tampa Bay Rays (75-79), and we’ve got you covered with our Red Sox vs. Rays prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:05 ET from Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Red Sox Competing in the A.L.
It has been a wild ride for the Boston Red Sox this year, as they’ve endured injuries and quite a bit of roster turnover. With all of that being said, the Red Sox find themselves right in the thick of the American League playoff race. Boston enters the weekend at 84-70, and they currently occupy the final wild card spot. A division title is likely out of the question at this point, as the Sox are chasing the first-place Blue Jays by 5.0 games. In terms of recent form, Boston 9-8 in its last 17 games. They’re coming off of an 11-7 victory in Friday’s series opener against the Rays.
The offense was plentiful in Friday’s 11-7 victory, as the Red Sox racked up 12 hits and 11 runs. Jarren Duran paved the way, going 2-for-6 with a home run and two runs scored. Garrett Crochet (6.0 IP, 3 ER) picked up another quality start and earned the win.
- Kyle Harrison gets the nod for the Red Sox on Saturday, and the 24-year-old is gearing up to make his second appearance with Boston after coming over from San Francisco in the Rafael Devers deal.
- Overall this season (nine appearances, 26.2 IP), the left-hander is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
- Harrison last pitched in relief on September 10th against the Athletics, where he tossed 3.0 scoreless innings and allowed only three hits.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 5-4 loss to the A’s.
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Rays Likely To Miss the Playoffs
It has been a rollercoaster ride of a season for the Tampa Bay Rays, but they just haven’t had enough firepower to get themselves into playoff contention. Heading into Saturday's action, the Rays are 75-79, which puts them 14.0 games out of the divisional lead and 9.0 games out of the wild card. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series split at home against Toronto (L: 2-1, L: 6-5, W: 2-1, W: 4-0), but they dropped Friday’s opener against the Red Sox (11-7).
Friday’s 11-7 defeat ultimately fell on the bullpen, and specifically Garrett Cleavinger. The hurler allowed two earned runs over just 0.2 innings and took the loss. Offensively, Everson blasted a grand slam in the 9th, but it was too little, too late for the Rays.
- Adrian Houser will oppose Harrison on Saturday, and the 32-year-old hurler has sneakily been one of the better pitchers in the MLB this year.
- The right-hander enters the weekend at 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
- Most recently, Houser faced the Cubs and turned in a 6.0-inning quality start, holding them to two earned runs on seven hits and a walk.
- It was a no-decision loss in a game that Chicago eventually won 4-3.
Red Sox vs. Rays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline () (5 units)
This game is sitting in the pick ‘em range (BOS -104, TB -110), and I’d say that’s fair considering the uncertainty surrounding Boston’s starting pitcher – Kyle Harrison. However, the left-hander did look sharp in his Red Sox debut, tossing 3.0 scoreless innings against the Athletics. Being that Harrison looked decent and the Red Sox need to keep winning games to maintain their wild card position, I’ll back them on the moneyline.
Furthermore, Adrian Houser–Tampa’s starter–hasn’t been as dominant since coming over from Chicago. The right-hander owns a 4.67 ERA with the club, compared to his 2.10 mark with the White Sox at the beginning of the season. Boston’s current lineup is slashing .500/.526/.778 against him over 18 at-bats as well. I think Boston finds enough offense to secure the win on Saturday night.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Under 8.5 (-108) (5 units)
I will go ahead and play the under in this divisional clash. Neither of these offenses has been great recently. Over the last seven days, the Red Sox are just 21st in wOBA (.297) and 22nd in ISO (.134), while the Rays are 19th (.313) and 18th (.146), respectively.
The Rays are coming off of a series against the Blue Jays where three out of the four games stayed under 8.5 runs, and they’ve now seen four out of their last six contests finish under the threshold. Both of these starters have been decent this season, and I’m willing to wager that they can handle the opposing underperforming offenses. Give me the under.
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