Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks for Sunday, September 21st, 2025
The MLB action continues on Sunday with a divisional matchup between the Boston Red Sox (85-70) and the Tampa Bay Rays (75-80), and we’ve got you covered with our Red Sox vs. Rays prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:35 ET from Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Red Sox Competing in the Wild Card
It has been a rollercoaster ride of a season for the Boston Red Sox, but the organization is in the thick of the playoff hunt as we near the final week of the year. The Red Sox are 85-70, which puts them 4.0 games out of the divisional lead and in the wild card. Boston has the middle wild card spot, but they only have a 0.5-game cushion above the fourth-place Guardians. The slumping Astros and in between with the third spot. The Red Sox dropped their midweek series against the Athletics (L: 2-1, W: 5-4, L: 5-3), but they’ve rattled off consecutive wins against the Rays (11-7, 6-3) to open up the weekend set.
It was a three-run 9th inning that helped get the Red Sox the 6-3 victory over the Rays on Saturday. Trevor Story drove in the go-ahead run in the 9th with an RBI single. The late surge meant that Garrett Whitlock (1.0 IP, 0 ER) earned the win in relief. Aroldis Chapman (1.0 IP, 0 ER) registered his 31st save when he closed out the game.
- Connelly Early gets the nod for Sunday’s finale, and the 23-year-old is gearing up to make his third career start.
- The left-hander has been sharp in two starts (10.1 IP), going 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
- Early faced the Athletics in his most recent start, and he tossed 5.1 innings and held them to one earned run on five hits.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 2-1 defeat.
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Rays Nearing Elimination
The Tampa Bay Rays typically find themselves in the mix come playoff time, despite possessing one of the league’s lowest payrolls. They’re 26th ($86.2 million) this season. With all of that being said, the Rays are not going to be playing October baseball in 2025. They’re just 75-80, which puts them 14.0 games out of the divisional race and 9.0 games out of the wild card. The Rays are in the midst of a 4-11 slide, so they essentially fumbled their chance to make a late push. The 4-11 stretch includes losing the first two games of this series with the Red Sox (11-7, 6-3).
Saturday’s 6-3 defeat fell on the bullpen, and specifically Jesse Scholtens. The reliever allowed three runs (one earned) over the final 3.0 innings. Offensively, the Rays went for seven hits and three runs. Yandy Diaz went 2-for-3 with an RBI.
- Joe Boyle will oppose Early on Sunday night, and the 26-year-old hasn’t been overpowering in 11 appearances (42.2 IP) this season.
- The right-hander is just 1-3 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
- Most recently, Boyle faced the Blue Jays on Monday and blanked them over 6.0 innings, allowing only three hits.
- It was a no-decision effort in a game that the Rays eventually lost 2-1.
Red Sox vs. Rays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-124) (5 units)
This should be a fun one on Sunday night, and the oddsmakers agree, pricing the Red Sox as a slim -124 moneyline favorite. I’m going to ride with Boston to win this game and complete the sweep.
The Red Sox have been the hotter team as of late. They’re on a 4-2 SU run, while the Rays are just 4-11 SU in their last 15 games. Boston will turn to Connelly Early, and he has been lights out to start his career. In two outings (10.1 IP), the left-hander has turned in a 0.87 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. His K/9 rate is an insane 15.7. With the Red Sox playing well and Early in solid form to start his career, I don’t mind laying the juice with them on the road.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Over 8.0 (-110) (5 units)
Early should turn in a solid outing on Sunday, but I don’t think Boston’s pitching staff will be untouchable. Tampa’s offense has been decent over the last seven days, ranking 12th in wOBA (.332) and 14th in ISO (.172). In the same categories, Boston is 13th (.331) and 19th (.154). Neither offense is overpowering at the moment, but both are playing well enough to clear this relatively low total.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that Boston has found success against Tampa’s Joe Boyle in the past. Their current roster is 6-16 (.375) against him with a .911 OPS. At this low number of 8.0 runs, I think it’s best to play the over.
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