Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays and Prediction, Tuesday, September 23, 2025
On Saturday afternoon, the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays meet in the first game of a three-game series at Rogers Center, and we will set you up with a Red Sox vs. Jays prediction to go along with free picks. Lucas Giolito will pitch for the Sox while Kevin Gausman throws for the Blue Jays. Read on for a prediction on the score and a game breakdown. Need a hot take on the MLB Season? Check out our Free MLB Picks and cash in.
Red Sox Clinging to the Wild Card
Entering the off day on Monday, the Red Sox are slotted into the second wild card spot in the American League, with a one-game lead on Houston and Cleveland. Lucas Giolito will toe the rubber in the first game of this series with Toronto.
- He did not factor into the decision in last Wednesday's game against the Athletics, allowing four runs on five hits and five walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings.
- Giolito worked around steady traffic early and stranded six runners through four frames to limit the damage to one run, but it caught up to him in the fifth. After a single and two walks loaded the bases with one out, the right-hander was removed from the game, and all three inherited runners came around to score.
- The rough outing broke a four-start streak in which Giolito had posted a 1.46 ERA and 22:10 K:BB across 24.2 innings.
- Giolito eclipsed the 140-inning mark in the outing, which automatically converts his $14 million club option for 2026 into a $19 million mutual option and almost guarantees that he will become a free agent this upcoming offseason.
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Gausman Takes the Mound in Key Series
Kevin Gausman will take the hill in the first game of this divisional set. Gausman did not factor into the decision Wednesday against the Rays, allowing one run on six hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings.
- Gausman gave up an early run in the first inning but quickly settled in, ousting 18 of the next 22 batters while shutting out Tampa Bay the rest of the way.
- Coming off a complete-game shutout against Houston in which he allowed just two hits, the right-hander continued his dominant form last week, though Toronto's lack of run support left him with a no-decision.
- Gausman has now given up only three runs across his last four starts (30 innings), posting a 0.90 ERA and 28:4 K:BB during that span.
Entering play Monday, the Blue Jays hold a two-game lead on the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East. They have been dominant at Rogers Centre, recording a 50-25 mark. Toronto is ripping the baseball in the second half, recording the most runs after the break and an .802 post-All-Star game OPS. They can put a stranglehold on the division with a good showing here.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Game Pick
Money Line Pick for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (4 units)
Kevin Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season. Last week, he completed six innings for the 11th time in 12 starts since the All-Star break. He surrendered a run-scoring single in the opening inning but managed to silence Tampa Bay’s lineup. He’ll carry a strong 3.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 177/47 K/BB ratio across 183 2/3 innings over 30 starts into this game against Boston, who have lost four of their last five games against Toronto. Home has been friendly to the Jays, who have a dominant 50-25 record at Rogers Centre. Take Toronto by two.
OVER/UNDER PICK for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
- UNDER (4 units)
We talked about how dominant Kevin Gausman has been for the Blue Jays, but Lucas Giolito has been a surprisingly strong contributor for the Red Sox this season. Excluding last week’s setback, where he allowed five walks, he had a strong four-start stretch in which he had posted a 1.46 ERA and 22:10 K:BB across 24.2 innings. Toronto has been involved in a number of low-scoring contests lately. The total has gone under in 11 of their last 16 games. I like Gausman and Giolito to deliver strong performances, and this game to go under.
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