Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Monday August 10 2026
The Boston Red Sox begin an American League East series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, on Monday, August 10, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET, with MLB.TV, NESN, and Sportsnet providing television coverage. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Baseball bettors can also check out our free MLB picks throughout the season.
Boston enters the series with the better overall record, but Toronto has controlled the season series. The Blue Jays have won six of the first nine meetings, including four of the six games played in Boston. The Red Sox have been excellent away from home, however, and their season-long pitching numbers give them an important advantage entering Monday’s matchup.
Starting Pitchers
Sonny Gray is scheduled to start for Boston, while Toronto had not confirmed its starting pitcher at the time of writing. Gray is 14-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP through 119.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 106 hits and 32 walks while recording 106 strikeouts, and he has surrendered only 12 home runs. Those numbers give Boston a dependable starting-pitching advantage against an unsettled Toronto rotation.
Boston Brings Its Road Success to Toronto
The Red Sox enter the matchup at 64-52 overall, including an impressive 35-22 record on the road. Boston recently won four consecutive games before suffering a 7-3 loss to the Athletics on Saturday. The Red Sox went 4-1 across the five completed games supplied for this preview, scoring at least 12 runs in three of those victories.
Boston owns a .249 team batting average with 520 runs, 966 hits, and 118 home runs. The Red Sox have produced a .320 on-base percentage and a .404 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been even more impressive, recording a 3.51 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 1,002 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .239 batting average.
The Red Sox possess the more complete statistical profile in this matchup. They lead Toronto in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Boston also owns the lower ERA and WHIP. The primary concern is its performance in the season series, as the Red Sox have been held to one run or fewer in five of their six losses against Toronto.
Toronto Attempts to Extend Its Season-Series Advantage
The Blue Jays enter Monday at 56-62 overall and 28-31 at Rogers Centre. Toronto recently defeated Philadelphia in consecutive games, winning 5-4 on Friday and 7-5 in 11 innings on Saturday. The Blue Jays went 3-2 across their five supplied results, although three of those games required extra innings.
Toronto is batting .242 as a team with 463 runs, 959 hits, and 114 home runs. The Blue Jays have registered a .303 on-base percentage and a .378 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.01 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 1,038 strikeouts and 426 walks. Opposing hitters are batting .241 against Toronto pitching.
Toronto’s biggest advantage is its demonstrated ability to frustrate Boston in the head-to-head series. The Blue Jays have held the Red Sox scoreless twice and limited them to one run three additional times. However, Toronto’s overall offensive production has been less consistent, and the club has a losing home record. Its pitching uncertainty also presents a difficult challenge against a Boston lineup that scored 47 runs over its five most recently supplied games.
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction
- Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Boston is the preferred side because of its starting-pitching advantage and excellent 35-22 road record. Gray’s 14-2 record, 2.78 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP provide the Red Sox with a strong foundation, while Toronto had not announced its starter. Boston also holds meaningful season-long advantages in run production, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, and WHIP.
Toronto’s 6-3 advantage in the season series prevents this from being an automatic selection, but the underlying numbers favor Boston. The Red Sox have scored 57 more runs and have a team ERA exactly half a run lower than Toronto’s. Take Boston on the moneyline, provided the price remains reasonable.
- Pick: Under 8.5
Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Boston’s recent offensive surge makes this selection less comfortable, but Gray has consistently limited opponents and allowed only 12 home runs in 119.2 innings. Toronto has also scored fewer than four runs in six of its nine meetings with Boston this season.
The uncertainty surrounding Toronto’s starter adds some risk, so the under becomes much less attractive if the market opens at 7.5 or lower. At 8.5, however, there is enough protection for a game in which Boston’s starting pitching should control Toronto’s lineup for much of the evening.
Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 5, Toronto Blue Jays 3
This preview was written prior to game play on Sunday.