Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction - September 24, 2025
There are still many things to be decided in the American League, and we have our eyes on a big game north of the border with our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions. Boston (85-71, 3rd in A.L. East) will have ace LHP Garrett Crochet (17-5, 2.69 ERA) as their starter for this key matchup. Toronto (90-66, 1st in A.L. East) goes with veteran RHP Max Scherzer (5-4, 5.06 ERA) as their starting pitcher. The first pitch from the Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 EST and don’t forget that when it comes to making big plays, our MLB Predictions are sure to turn two.
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Tuesday’s games.)
Red Sox trying to keep walls from closing in
The Red Sox took two of three games in Tampa Bay before arriving in Toronto and went 3-2 in their last five games. Their grip on the second Wild Card slot in the American League has slipped to one game with two teams behind them. Over their last five games, Boston’s offense scored 28 runs and hit .271 as a team, stealing nine bases in the process. They came into this series with the second-best team batting average, .255, in the American League. Boston’s 765 runs are third most in the league and they’ve hit 182 home runs. Red Sox hitters lead the A.L. with 309 doubles, are second with 23 triples and third with 137 stolen bases.
Boston’s pitching ranks third in the American League with a 3.76 ERA but 10th with a 1.29 WHIP. They’ve struck out 1,311 batters and opponents were hitting .245 against them. Starters are 51-42 with a 3.95 ERA while the Sox relievers have a league-best 3.47 ERA to go with 43 saves and 34 wins. Garrett Crochet is making his 32nd start of the season, looking for a fourth straight win. In his last three starts the lefty went 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 31 Ks over 19 innings. He leads the A.L. with 239 strikeouts and opponents are hitting .220 against him.
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Quick hits
- Crochet is 3-1 with a 1.31 ERA in five career games against Toronto.
- Alex Bregman came into the series on a four-game hitting streak, having reached base in 12 of his last 13 games.
- Romy Gonzalez had two hits and an RBI on Saturday, giving him a .303 batting average and 50 RBIs this season.
- Trevor Story drove in four runs in his last five games and he is 10th in the A.L. with 95 RBIs.
- Jarren Duran has hit safely in 13 of 18 games in September.
Blue Jays get locked in
The Blue Jays became the first American League team to clinch a playoff spot, but they still have work to do as they came into this series with just a two-game lead on the Yankees in the East. They were able to put an end to a four-game losing streak with a win over Kansas City on Sunday and they’ll conclude with six games at home. In their losing streak, the offense tallied three runs in four games, but on the year, they top the American League with a .267 team batting average. They are second in the league with 768 runs, and their 182 home runs are tied with Boston. Toronto hitters have struck out 1,054 times, the second fewest in the A.L.
In the pitching department, Toronto ranks 11th in the American League with a 4.23 team ERA. The staff has a 1.27 WHIP with 1,373 strikeouts, and opponents are hitting .242 against them. Starter pitching for the club comes into this series with a 48-44 record and 4.32 ERA, whilethe Jays’ relievers had 42 wins, 41 saves and a 4.09 ERA. Max Scherzer is making start number 17 on this year. In his last four starts, the 41-year-old went 0-2 with a 10.93 ERA, allowing five home runs and seven walks. The team has hit .251 against Scherzer this season.
Quick hits
- Scherzer has faced Boston 13 times in his career and is 5-6 with a 5.67 ERA.
- Anthony Santander was reinstated prior to the start of this series after sitting on the 60-day IL since May 29th.
- Bo Bichette, out with a sprained left knee, took swings in the cage on Monday and Tuesday.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .368 in September and was seventh in the league with a .299 average on the year.
- George Springer is fourth in the league with 101 runs, and he leads the club with 30 home runs.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Picks
Spread Pick for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
- Red Sox -140 (5 units)
When these two division foes last met up, Toronto took two of three games in Boston late in June. The Red Sox were a team idling at that point in the season, but since then, they’ve come to life, inserted themselves firmly into playoff position and now have a chance to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs. This will be the last regular season start for Croche,t who has been sensational this season and should put some pressure on the Cy Young race. The lefty has gotten stronger down the stretch, and he’s struck out at least nine batters in each of his last three starts. He is an astonishing 12-2 on the road this season with a 2.42 ERA. Crochet has also faced Toronto twice this season, allowing three earned runs over 12.2 innings. I’m expecting his absolute best effort in a tune-up to what should be a game one start for the southpaw. Scherzer has been a mess over the past month, and at home this season, he’s allowed 11 home runs in nine starts. He hasn’t faced the Sox this season, but has struggled against them throughout his career.
Take the Red Sox.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
- Under 7.5 (5 units)
The last series between these two teams saw the over go 2-1 as the teams combined to average 11 runs per game. That series was three months ago and as we come towards the finish line, the bats aren’t going to be producing as much. This series should have a playoff atmosphere, which will tighten the nerves a bit as well. Then there is the pitching matchup. While Scherzer hasn’t been good over the last month, he is far from out of gas and should never be underestimated. His counterpart, Crochet, has been one of the best and most consistent starters in the American League this season. The under is 6-4 in the head-to-head this season.
Take the under.
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