Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Picks - September 26, 2025
The 2025 MLB season is winding down, and while the Milwaukee Brewers are gearing up for the playoffs, the Cincinnati Reds will not be part of the postseason picture; look inside for our prediction and picks. This weekend’s matchup between the Reds (81-78, 36-42 away) and the Brewers (96-63, 51-27 home) kicks off on Friday, September 26, 2025, at 7:10 PM ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The game will feature a pitching duel between Cincinnati’s Zack Littell (10-8, 3.86 ERA) and Milwaukee’s Quinn Priester (13-2, 3.25 ERA). The weather is expected to be a cool 63°F at game time. The Reds are coming off a narrow 2-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, while the Brewers secured a 3-1 win against the San Diego Padres in their last outing. Milwaukee leads the season series 3-1 heading into this matchup, with both teams looking to close out the season on a high note.
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Reds Look to Finish Strong as Postseason Slips Out of Reach
The Cincinnati Reds have had an inconsistent stretch as the 2025 MLB season nears its conclusion, and with an 81-78 record, they are officially out of the playoff picture. Over their last five games, the Reds have gone 3-2, including a narrow 2-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 25, where strong pitching and timely hitting secured the win. However, they dropped two of three games earlier in the series, including a tough 4-3 loss in extra innings on September 24. Injuries have also taken a toll, with key players like Wade Miley (60-day IL), Austin Hays (day-to-day), and Nick Lodolo (day-to-day) sidelined. As the season winds down, the Reds will look to finish strong despite missing out on postseason contention
Probable starter Zack Littell has been a steady presence in the rotation, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 182 innings. Littell has allowed 36 home runs this season but has kept his walks to a minimum with just 30 free passes. Offensively, Spencer Steer leads the team with 21 home runs, while Elly De La Cruz has driven in 85 runs with a .264 batting average. As a team, the Reds are hitting .244 with a .315 OBP and .392 SLG. Their pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, ranking them in the middle of the pack in most categories.
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Brewers Look to Secure Home Win and Strengthen Playoff Position
The Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the most consistent teams in baseball this season, sitting atop the NL Central with a 96-63 record and an impressive 51-27 mark at home. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a 3-1 win over the San Diego Padres on September 24, thanks to a strong performance from their pitching staff. Offensively, the Brewers have been more productive than the Reds, scoring 797 runs this season compared to Cincinnati’s 702. However, injuries have impacted Milwaukee’s roster, with key players like Brandon Woodruff (15-day IL), Jose Quintana (15-day IL), and Logan Henderson (60-day IL) currently sidelined. Nevertheless, the Brewers are focused on maintaining their momentum as they prepare for the playoffs.
Quinn Priester will take the mound for the Brewers, bringing a stellar 13-2 record, 3.25 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP into the game. Priester has been particularly effective at limiting home runs, allowing just 18 in 152.1 innings pitched. Offensively, Christian Yelich has been the team’s standout performer, hitting .266 with 29 home runs and 102 RBIs. Sal Frelick leads the team in batting average at .291. The Brewers are hitting .260 as a team with a .333 OBP and .405 SLG. Their pitching staff has been one of the best in the league, posting a 3.61 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Milwaukee’s defense has also been solid, committing fewer errors per game than Cincinnati.
Brewers vs. Reds Pick
Spread Pick for Brewers vs. Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (5 Units)
The Cincinnati Reds have struggled against the run line recently, going 2-3 in their last five games and covering the run line in just 47% of their road games this season, where they hold a 36-42 record. In contrast, the Milwaukee Brewers have been dominant at home, covering the run line in 55% of their games at American Family Field and showing greater consistency against divisional opponents, winning 61.7% of games against NL Central teams compared to Cincinnati’s 38.3%. The Reds are 1-4 against the run line in their last five games against the Brewers, while Milwaukee is 4-1 straight up in those matchups. Additionally, the Brewers are 7-3 against the run line in their last 10 home games, whereas Cincinnati has failed to cover the run line in 6 of their last 10 road games. Milwaukee has also covered the run line in 8 of their last 12 games as favorites, while the Reds are just 3-7 against the run line in their last 10 games as underdogs. Notably, Milwaukee has won 5 of their last 6 games when favored by -1.5, and they have outscored Cincinnati 26-16 in its last four meetings. With Quinn Priester on the mound and Milwaukee’s superior offensive and defensive metrics, the Brewers are well-positioned to cover the run line. Double Play the Brewers!
Over/Under Pick for Brewers vs. Reds
- Under 8 (4 units)
Both teams have shown a tendency to lean toward the under in recent matchups. The Reds have gone under in 7 of their last 10 games, while the Brewers have gone under in 6 of their last 10. Cincinnati’s games have averaged 7.8 total runs over their last 10 contests, and Milwaukee’s have averaged 8.2 runs in the same span. Key trends include the Reds going under in 4 of their last 5 games and 6 of their last 8 against NL Central opponents, while Milwaukee has gone under in 5 of their last 7 home games and 4 of their last 6 as favorites. Additionally, the total has gone under in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Both teams have also consistently stayed under in games with totals set at 8.5 or higher, with the Brewers going under in 3 of their last 4 such games and the Reds going under in 5 of their last 7 road games. With strong pitching on both sides and these trends in mind, the best bet is to take the Under. Go UNDER and Good Luck!
