Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 25 2026

The Chicago Cubs travel to Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the matchup at 75-56 overall and 37-29 on the road, while Arizona is 69-62 overall and 38-28 at home. The Cubs sit six games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central, while Arizona remains third in the NL West. Chicago also comes into this matchup having won all three completed meetings against the Diamondbacks this season. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks throughout the season for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Chicago will send Clay Holmes to the mound with a 5-6 record, 2.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 68.2 innings. Holmes has allowed only 53 hits while striking out 50, walking 23 and surrendering four home runs. Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, who is 7-1 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 98.1 innings. Pfaadt has allowed 88 hits while recording 69 strikeouts, 24 walks and 11 home runs. Both starters have been effective, but Holmes enters with the stronger ERA, slightly better WHIP and considerably lower home-run rate.

Cubs Bring the More Productive Offense

Chicago enters Tuesday with a 75-56 record and has been solid away from home at 37-29. The Cubs are 2-3 over their last five games, but their most recent performance was easily the most impressive of that stretch, exploding for a 19-2 victory. Their previous four games included three losses by margins of one, one and three runs, showing that Chicago was generally competitive even before the offensive breakout.

The Cubs are batting .250 with 1,125 hits, 684 runs and 174 home runs. Chicago also carries a .339 on-base percentage and .423 slugging percentage. Those numbers provide a clear offensive advantage over Arizona, particularly in run production and power. Chicago has scored 86 more runs and hit 45 more home runs than the Diamondbacks.

The Cubs' pitching numbers are also competitive. Chicago owns a 4.12 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP while opponents are batting .244. The staff has recorded 1,007 strikeouts against 393 walks. While those pitching numbers are not dominant, Chicago's ability to combine better offensive production with comparable overall run prevention gives the Cubs a strong statistical foundation in this matchup.

Diamondbacks Lean on Home-Field Success

Arizona enters at 69-62 overall and has been particularly effective at Chase Field with a 38-28 home record. The Diamondbacks have won three of their last five, including a 5-3 victory in their most recent outing. Their recent stretch has been volatile, though, with a 9-0 victory and an 11-5 loss appearing within the same five-game sample.

The Diamondbacks are batting .245 with 1,077 hits, 598 runs and 129 home runs. Arizona owns a .318 on-base percentage and .401 slugging percentage. Those numbers trail Chicago across all five categories, with the Cubs holding advantages in batting average, total hits, runs, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Arizona's pitching staff carries a 4.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while opponents are batting .252. The Diamondbacks have 892 strikeouts and 386 walks. Those numbers are fairly close to Chicago's overall pitching profile, but Arizona allows a slightly higher ERA, WHIP and opposing batting average. The Diamondbacks' strongest argument is their 38-28 home record and the solid season being put together by their Tuesday starter.

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the preferred side because the Cubs hold advantages in both the starting-pitcher matchup and the broader offensive profile. Holmes enters with a 2.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while the Chicago offense has produced 684 runs and 174 home runs compared with Arizona's 598 runs and 129 homers. The Cubs have also taken all three completed meetings this season, winning 6-5, 2-0 and 8-4. Arizona's strong home record makes this far from a walkover, but Chicago's superior offensive numbers and slightly stronger starter make the Cubs moneyline the better side.

Pick: Under 8.5

The total is the more difficult market because both offenses have shown the ability to produce explosive games recently, but the starting matchup pushes this toward the under. Holmes enters with a 2.49 ERA and Pfaadt owns a 3.39 ERA, while both have WHIPs near 1.10. Holmes has allowed just four home runs in 68.2 innings, and Pfaadt has allowed 11 over 98.1 innings. With two effective starters capable of keeping the early innings controlled, take the Under if the total is set at 8.5.

This game preview was completed before play on Monday, August 24, 2026.