Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Chicago Cubs visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on Friday, September 25, 2026, for Game 1 of a doubleheader that was rescheduled from September 27. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Chicago enters at 87-71 overall and 42-36 on the road, while Boston is 85-73 overall and 39-38 at home. The Cubs have dropped two straight after consecutive losses to Miami, while the Red Sox snapped a three-game skid with a 1-0 victory over Cleveland on Wednesday. Chicago sits second in the NL Central, 12 games behind Milwaukee, while Boston is third in the AL East, 11 games behind Tampa Bay. This will be the first meeting of the season between the teams. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Chicago is scheduled to start David Peterson, who enters at 9-8 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.51 WHIP through 143.1 innings. He has allowed 154 hits and 15 home runs while recording 131 strikeouts against 63 walks. Boston had not announced its Game 1 starter at the time this preview was completed, creating an important layer of uncertainty in the matchup. Peterson's numbers are concerning despite his respectable win-loss record, particularly the 1.51 WHIP and 154 hits allowed. Chicago therefore does not enter with a clear starting-pitching advantage simply because its starter is known, and Boston's eventual choice could materially change the betting outlook.

Chicago Owns the More Dangerous Offensive Profile

Chicago enters Friday at 87-71 after losing consecutive games to Miami, including a 3-2 defeat Wednesday and an 8-2 loss in 12 innings the previous day. The Cubs are 2-3 over their last five, with both victories coming on the road against Cincinnati by scores of 5-2 and 9-1. Chicago has scored 22 runs over that five-game stretch, although 14 came in the two victories. The Cubs remain above .500 away from home at 42-36.

Chicago has been one of the more productive offensive teams in this matchup statistically. The Cubs are batting .251 with 839 runs, 1,365 hits and 217 home runs while carrying a .339 on-base percentage and .430 slugging percentage. Those numbers give Chicago substantial advantages over Boston in runs scored, home runs, OBP and slugging. The pitching staff has been less dominant, posting a 4.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .244. Chicago has issued 485 walks and recorded 1,236 strikeouts.

The offensive differential is the most important reason to take Chicago seriously in Game 1. The Cubs have scored 158 more runs than Boston this season and hit 55 more home runs. Their .339 OBP also gives them a much stronger ability to extend innings. The concern is whether Peterson can give the offense enough stability early, because Boston's overall pitching staff has been considerably better than Chicago's.

Boston Leans on Its Pitching at Fenway Park

Boston enters the doubleheader at 85-73 and is 39-38 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have won only two of their last five games, but Wednesday's 1-0 victory over Cleveland was a strong pitching response after three consecutive losses. Boston had dropped 3-2 to Cleveland and then lost 5-1 and 2-1 to Tampa Bay before the shutout win. The Red Sox have scored only nine runs over their last five games, with four of those coming in a single victory.

Boston is batting .247 with 681 runs, 1,306 hits and 162 home runs. The Red Sox own a .320 on-base percentage and .401 slugging percentage. While those offensive numbers trail Chicago's across the board, Boston has the superior season-long pitching profile. The Red Sox carry a 3.56 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while holding opponents to a .241 batting average. Boston has also generated 1,370 strikeouts against 460 walks.

That pitching edge gives Boston a path to neutralize Chicago's stronger offense. The Red Sox have allowed only 12 runs across their last five games, including one run or fewer three times during that span. The unanswered question is who starts the opener. With a doubleheader scheduled, bullpen and pitching allocation become especially important, and Boston's decision in Game 1 could shift the matchup considerably before first pitch.

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the side at the current information stage because its offensive advantage is too large to ignore. The Cubs have scored 839 runs compared with Boston's 681 and hold sizeable advantages in home runs, OBP and slugging percentage. Chicago has also been a capable road team at 42-36. Boston clearly owns the better pitching staff overall, but its Game 1 starter remains undecided, which makes it difficult to fully price that advantage. Peterson's 4.96 ERA and 1.51 WHIP create risk on the Chicago side, but the Cubs possess substantially more offensive upside and should have opportunities against a Boston club that has scored just nine runs over its last five games.

Pick: Over 8.0 or Lower

The total is more difficult because Boston's pitching has been strong while its offense has recently gone quiet, but Peterson's numbers introduce enough volatility to lean toward the over at a lower number. He enters with a 4.96 ERA and 1.51 WHIP after allowing 154 hits in 143.1 innings, giving Boston an opportunity to improve upon its recent offensive production. Chicago, meanwhile, owns 839 runs, 217 home runs and a .430 slugging percentage. Boston's unannounced starter adds uncertainty, and doubleheader pitching plans can create additional bullpen variables. Over 8.0 or lower is playable, while anything approaching 9.0 would require a reassessment once Boston announces its starter.

Final Picks: Chicago Cubs Moneyline and Over 8.0 or Lower

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.