Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 10, 2026

The Chicago Cubs travel to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, to face the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, July 10, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET, and the game will be televised on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the matchup with a 52-40 overall record and a 25-21 record on the road, while Cincinnati comes in at 42-49 overall and 21-25 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Cubs a slight 51.1% edge over the Reds, who sit at 48.9%. Be sure to check out our ⁠free MLB Picks.

Starting Pitchers

Chicago is expected to start Shota Imanaga, who enters Friday’s game with a 5-7 record, a 4.28 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP across 103.0 innings. He has allowed 87 hits while striking out 100 batters, walking 26, and giving up 21 home runs. Cincinnati is projected to counter with Hunter Greene, who has appeared in limited action this season and carries a 0-1 record with a 21.60 ERA and a 3.30 WHIP over 3.1 innings. He has allowed seven hits, struck out seven batters, walked four, and surrendered one home run.

Chicago Looks to Extend Its Strong Stretch

The Cubs enter Friday with a 52-40 overall record and a solid 25-21 mark away from home. Chicago has won three of its last five games, recently defeating Baltimore twice and St. Louis once. The Cubs also recently lost to St. Louis twice, but they have bounced back nicely with consecutive victories entering this series.

Chicago is batting .244 as a team with 469 runs, 767 hits, and 117 home runs. The Cubs own a .338 on-base percentage and a .411 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has produced a 4.36 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .245. Chicago has also recorded 721 strikeouts against 284 walks and owns a 20-18 record in day games.

The Cubs hold advantages in several offensive categories entering this matchup. They have scored more runs, collected more hits, posted a higher on-base percentage, and own a stronger batting average than Cincinnati. That balanced production has helped Chicago remain well above .500 this season.

Cincinnati Tries to Defend Home Field

The Reds come into the series with a 42-49 overall record and a 21-25 record at home. Cincinnati has split its last five contests, recently defeating Philadelphia and Baltimore while also dropping games to Philadelphia and Baltimore. The Reds have struggled to string together consistent wins, but they have shown they can compete against quality opponents.

Cincinnati enters Friday batting .228 with 384 runs, 695 hits, and 113 home runs. The Reds own a .310 on-base percentage and a .392 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has posted a 4.57 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .249. Cincinnati has also accumulated 731 strikeouts and 412 walks, and the club owns a 20-18 record in day games.

One area working in Cincinnati’s favor is its home run production. The Reds have hit 113 home runs, only four fewer than Chicago, despite producing fewer runs and hits overall. However, their higher WHIP and ERA have made it more difficult to consistently protect leads throughout the season.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pick

• Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is my selection in this matchup. The Cubs have the better overall record, the stronger road record, the edge in the ESPN Matchup Predictor, and advantages across most offensive categories. The projected starting pitching matchup also favors Chicago based on the statistics provided, making the Cubs the stronger overall choice.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick

• Pick: Over 8.5

I’m taking the over if the total is set at 8.5. Both teams have hit more than 110 home runs this season, and neither pitching staff has posted an ERA below 4.00. With Chicago averaging solid offensive production and Cincinnati capable of generating power, I see enough scoring potential for this game to finish above the total.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 7 – Cincinnati Reds 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.