Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for July 11, 2026

The Chicago Cubs will travel to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, for a Saturday night matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on July 11, 2026, with television coverage available on ESPN Unlmtd and MLB.TV. The Cubs enter the contest with a 52-41 overall record and a 25-22 mark on the road, while the Reds are 42-50 overall and 21-26 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers

Javier Assad is scheduled to start for the Cubs against Nick Lodolo for the Reds. Assad enters the game with a 6-1 record, a 4.15 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP through 56.1 innings. He has allowed 47 hits while striking out 33 batters, issuing 15 walks, and surrendering 10 home runs. Lodolo carries a 3-2 record with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP across 57.2 innings. He has allowed 60 hits while recording 46 strikeouts, walking 24 batters, and giving up eight home runs. Based on the supplied numbers, Assad holds the edge with the stronger record, lower ERA, lower WHIP, fewer hits allowed, and fewer walks.

Chicago Brings the Better Overall Resume

The Cubs enter Saturday with a 52-41 overall record and a 25-22 mark away from home. Chicago has gone 3-2 over its last five contests. The Cubs recently lost to Baltimore 3-2 after earning victories of 9-7 and 5-2 against the Orioles. Before that series, Chicago split its meetings with St. Louis, winning 6-4 after dropping a 3-0 decision.

Chicago is batting .244 with 776 hits, 471 runs, and 118 home runs. The Cubs own a .337 on-base percentage and a .412 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has produced a 4.35 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP while recording 726 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .244 against Chicago. The Cubs have compiled a 32-22 record in night games.

The Cubs’ biggest strength is their ability to consistently generate offense. Chicago has scored 471 runs this season, which is 87 more than Cincinnati. The Cubs also hold advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, hits, and home runs. Those offensive numbers have helped overcome occasional inconsistency on the mound.

Cincinnati Looks for a Home Victory

The Reds come into this matchup with a 42-50 overall record and a 21-26 mark at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati has gone 2-3 over its last five games. The Reds recently lost to Philadelphia 1-0 after defeating the Phillies 11-5. Before that series, Cincinnati fell 4-1 to Philadelphia but split a pair of games against Baltimore with a 3-2 victory and an 8-5 loss.

Cincinnati is batting .227 with 698 hits, 384 runs, and 113 home runs. The Reds have recorded a .309 on-base percentage and a .389 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.53 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP while collecting 738 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .248 against Cincinnati. The Reds have gone 22-32 in night games.

The Reds have shown the ability to hit for power, trailing the Cubs by only five home runs, but they have struggled to produce offense consistently. Cincinnati has scored fewer runs, collected fewer hits, and owns the lower batting average and on-base percentage. Their pitching staff has also posted the higher ERA and WHIP, making run prevention another challenge entering this matchup.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pick

• Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is my preferred side because the Cubs enter with the stronger overall record, the better road record, and advantages in nearly every offensive category. They have scored 87 more runs than Cincinnati while also holding the better batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The starting pitching matchup also favors Chicago, with Javier Assad entering with the lower ERA and WHIP. Combined with the slight edge in the matchup predictor, the Cubs are the stronger moneyline selection.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick

• Take the under if the total is set at 8.5.

I would lean toward the under if the total is set at 8.5. Chicago’s starter enters with a 1.10 WHIP, while Cincinnati was just held to one run in its most recent game. The Cubs also played a 3-2 game in their latest contest, and the Reds have recently been involved in both a 1-0 and 4-1 game. Those recent scoring trends, along with the supplied starting-pitching numbers, make the under my preferred play.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5 – Cincinnati Reds 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.