Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20, 2025
In our Cubs vs. Reds prediction, the Chicago Cubs are second in the NL Central with an 88-66 record so far. They are having young right-hander Javier Assad get the start as he is coming off a win against the Tampa Bay Rays out of the bullpen where he pitched 2.1 innings and allowed zero runs on two hits with two walks and one strikeout.
The Cincinnati Reds are holding their own as they are sitting in third place in the NL Central with a 78-76 record entering this game. Right-hander Zack Littell takes the ball and is coming off a no-decision against the St. Louis Cardinals where he allowed four runs on five hits with one hit by pitch, zero walks and three strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work.
From splits to bullpens, MLB predictions for Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds highlight the edge.
Cubs Looking for Top NL Wild Card Spot
The Chicago Cubs have been an incredible offensive team as they are tied with the Boston Red Sox for eighth in the sport with a .748 team OPS while averaging 4.85 runs per game. Chicago has been hitting home runs at an incredible rate as they are seventh in MLB with 207 total homers. First baseman Michael Busch has been hitting at an amazing level as he has a .827 OPS with 29 home runs, 81 RBI, 71 runs scored, and four steals without being caught.
Javier Assad has not pitched enough to factor into the percentile rankings on Baseball Savant as he has a 5.18 xERA, 92.1 MPH average exit velocity, 15.8 chase percentage, and 12.9 strikeout percentage. He has a seven-pitch arsenal (sinker, cutter, sweeper, fastball, curveball, changeup, slider) and his cutter has been getting hit the most as hitters have a .389 batting average and .500 slugging percentage with zero home runs and zero strikeouts against it. Assad faced the Reds twice last season as he went 0-1 in 11.0 innings and gave up seven runs on 12 hits with one hit by pitch, five walks, and 14 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Chicago
- Right fielder Owen Caissie: Concussion (OUT)
- Right fielder Kyle Tucker: Calf (OUT)
- Pitcher Daniel Palencia: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Braiser: Groin (OUT)
- Catcher Miguel Amaya: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Eli Morgan: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Steele: Elbow (OUT)
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Reds Looking to Fight for Playoff Spot
The Cincinnati Reds are doing a respectable job at the plate as they are tied with the San Diego Padres for 18th in the bigs with a .708 team OPS while scoring 4.48 runs per game. The Reds are doing a decent job stealing bases as they are 19th in the majors with 100 stolen bases on 130 attempts. First baseman Spencer Steer has been stepping up as he is posting a .243/.313/.417 slash line with 20 home runs, 72 RBI, 64 runs scored, and seven steals while being caught once.
Zack Littell is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 12th percentile in strikeout percentage, 15th percentile in whiff percentage, 20th percentile in xBA, and 21st percentile in barrel percentage. He has five different pitches (slider, splitter, fastball, sinker, sweeper) and his sweeper has been his best pitch as hitters have a .094 batting average and .156 slugging percentage with zero home runs and seven strikeouts. Littell faced the Cubs once this season in a win as he pitched seven innings and allowed one run on three hits with two walks and eight strikeouts.
Injury Report for Cincinnati
- Pitcher Ian Gubaut: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Wade Miley: Flexor (OUT)
- Pitcher Rhett Lowder: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Carson Spiers: Shoulder (OUT)
- Left fielder Tyler Callihan: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Brandon Williamson: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Julian Aguiar: Elbow (OUT)
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
Spread Pick for Cubs vs. Reds
- Cincinnati Reds -111 (4 units)
The road/home splits show a gap between the production of these pitchers as Javier Assad is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a .288 batting average against in 16.0 innings (three road starts) while Zack Littell is 2-4 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 73.2 innings (13 home starts) entering this game. The team batting average of balls in play shows a gap as the Reds are eighth with a .299 team BABIP, while the Cubs are down at 23rd with a .284 team BABIP right now. The Reds won four of the last five games against the Cubs, so take the Cincinnati Reds to secure the win.
Over/Under Pick for Cubs vs. Reds
- OVER (4 units)
When looking at these pitchers lately, they are giving up runs as Javier Assad is 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA and a 9:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio in his last six games (five starts) while Zack Littell is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 36.2 innings in his previous seven starts. Hitting with runners in scoring position shows they can hit well as the Cubs are seventh with a .777 team OPS in those chances, while the Reds are 20th with a .729 team OPS with runners in scoring position. All in all, go with the OVER to hit here.
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