Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Sunday July 12, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds continue their series on Sunday, July 12, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET, with television coverage on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the matchup with a 52-42 overall record and a 25-23 road record, while Cincinnati comes in at 43-50 overall and 22-26 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Cubs a slight 52.5% chance of winning compared with 47.5% for the Reds. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Chicago is expected to start Matthew Boyd, who brings a 4-1 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP into this matchup. The left-hander has pitched 39.2 innings, allowing 40 hits while striking out 44 and walking 12. He has surrendered four home runs this season. Cincinnati is scheduled to counter with Andrew Abbott, who is 5-5 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 101.0 innings. Abbott has given up 97 hits, 16 home runs, and 45 walks while recording 81 strikeouts. Boyd has allowed fewer home runs and fewer walks, while Abbott has logged a much heavier workload this season.
Chicago Looks to Finish the Series Strong
The Cubs enter Sunday’s contest with a 52-42 overall record and a respectable 25-23 mark away from home. Chicago has gone 3-2 over its last five games. The Cubs most recently lost to Cincinnati 4-0 after splitting a three-game stretch against Baltimore. During that run they earned victories of 9-7 and 5-2 before falling 3-2. They also defeated St. Louis 6-4 prior to beginning the road trip.
Chicago is batting .243 as a team with 471 runs, 780 hits, and 118 home runs. The Cubs have produced a .336 on-base percentage and a .409 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.35 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP while holding opponents to a .245 batting average. Chicago has recorded 734 strikeouts while issuing 292 walks. The Cubs are 20-19 in day games.
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One of Chicago’s biggest strengths is its ability to reach base. The Cubs own a .336 on-base percentage, which is comfortably ahead of Cincinnati’s .309 mark. Chicago has also scored 471 runs compared with 388 for the Reds while posting a better ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Those advantages have helped the Cubs remain well above .500 despite the recent shutout loss.
Cincinnati Aims to Keep Its Momentum Alive
The Reds come into this matchup with a 43-50 overall record and a 22-26 record at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati has gone 3-2 over its last five contests. The Reds recently defeated the Cubs 4-0 after alternating wins and losses against Philadelphia. During that stretch they earned victories over Philadelphia by scores of 11-5 and a 3-2 win over the Orioles, while dropping games by scores of 4-1 and 1-0 against the Phillies.
Cincinnati is batting .228 with 388 runs, 711 hits, and 115 home runs. The Reds have posted a .309 on-base percentage and a .392 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.48 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .247. Cincinnati has struck out 754 batters while issuing 414 walks. The Reds are 20-18 in day games.
Cincinnati’s most notable statistical advantage is its ability to generate strikeouts. The Reds have recorded 754 strikeouts, slightly more than Chicago’s 734. However, they also have the higher ERA, higher WHIP, and have allowed opponents to hit at a slightly higher rate. Cincinnati will hope its recent shutout victory carries over into this matchup after limiting the Cubs to no runs on Friday.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Chicago is my moneyline selection based on the season-long body of work. The Cubs own the better overall record, have been above .500 on the road, and hold statistical advantages in runs scored, hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Although Cincinnati won the most recent meeting 4-0, Chicago has been the more consistent team throughout the season. ESPN Analytics also gives the Cubs a slight edge at 52.5%, reinforcing the lean toward the visitors.
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick
- Pick: Take the under if the total is set at 8.5
I would take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Chicago’s pitching staff owns a 4.35 ERA, while Cincinnati sits at 4.48, and both starting pitchers have ERAs in the low-to-mid 4.00 range. Friday’s opener finished with only four total runs, and three of Cincinnati’s last five games have produced four runs or fewer combined. With both teams coming off several lower-scoring contests, I like the under if the total is posted at 8.5.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5 – Cincinnati Reds 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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