Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 20 2026

The Chicago Cubs visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Sunday, September 20, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Chicago enters at 85-69 overall and 40-36 on the road, while Cincinnati is 72-82 overall and 38-41 at home. The Reds won the first completed game of the series 6-4 on September 18. Chicago sits second in the NL Central, 11 games behind Milwaukee, while Cincinnati is fifth at 24 games back. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Chicago is scheduled to start David Peterson, who enters at 8-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 137.1 innings. Peterson has allowed 151 hits and 14 home runs while recording 124 strikeouts against 62 walks. Cincinnati counters with Rhett Lowder, who is 6-11 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.52 WHIP through 124.1 innings. Lowder has surrendered 138 hits and 18 home runs while striking out 98 and walking 51. Neither starter brings particularly strong run-prevention numbers into Sunday, but Peterson holds the lower ERA, has allowed fewer home runs and owns the better strikeout total. Lowder has the slightly better WHIP, although both pitchers have allowed more hits than innings pitched, creating opportunities for each offense.

Cubs Have the Offensive Numbers to Respond

Chicago enters Sunday at 85-69 and has gone 40-36 away from home. The Cubs have alternated wins and losses over their last five completed games, going 2-3 during that stretch. They lost 6-4 at Cincinnati on September 18 after beating Atlanta 8-4, and their other recent victory was a 7-3 decision. Chicago has scored 25 runs across those five games while allowing 23, so the offense has continued producing even though the overall results have been inconsistent.

The season-long offensive numbers give Chicago a substantial advantage. The Cubs are batting .252 with 1,329 hits, 821 runs and 212 home runs while carrying a .340 on-base percentage and .431 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.21 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with opponents batting .245. Chicago pitching has recorded 1,195 strikeouts against 476 walks.

Chicago's greatest advantage is its ability to generate runs in multiple ways. The Cubs have scored 182 more runs than Cincinnati while also holding advantages in batting average, hits, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Their pitching has also been considerably more effective over the entire season. The concern is Sunday's starting matchup, where Chicago's scheduled starter carries a 5.11 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Cincinnati already showed in the series opener that it can take advantage when given enough scoring opportunities, so Chicago may need its offense to carry a larger portion of the workload.

Reds Try to Build on Series-Opening Victory

Cincinnati enters at 72-82 overall and 38-41 at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are 2-3 over their last five completed games, but both victories have come within their last three results. Cincinnati beat Chicago 6-4 on September 18 and also recorded a 6-2 victory in its previous series. The Reds have scored 15 runs and allowed 22 across their last five, with three of those games producing three runs or fewer for Cincinnati.

The Reds are batting .230 with 1,176 hits, 639 runs and 203 home runs. Their .307 on-base percentage and .396 slugging percentage both trail Chicago's marks. Cincinnati's pitching has also struggled, entering with a 4.87 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while opponents are batting .254. The staff has issued 642 walks against 1,242 strikeouts, and the high walk total adds another potential problem against a Chicago offense with a strong .340 on-base percentage.

Cincinnati's power production gives the Reds a path to another competitive game, particularly with Chicago starting a pitcher carrying an ERA above five. However, the larger statistical profile favors the Cubs. Cincinnati has scored only 639 runs compared with Chicago's 821, while its pitching staff has allowed opponents to reach base at a much higher rate. Sunday's scheduled starter has also struggled to prevent runs, meaning Cincinnati may need another productive offensive performance to compensate.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the preferred side despite Cincinnati winning the first completed game of this series. The Cubs hold substantial season-long advantages offensively, including a .252 batting average compared with .230, 821 runs compared with 639 and a .340 on-base percentage compared with .307. Chicago also owns the better team ERA and WHIP. Neither starting pitcher inspires much confidence, but that makes the quality of the offenses and overall pitching staffs even more important. With the Cubs holding the stronger statistical profile in both areas, Chicago is the moneyline pick as long as the eventual price remains reasonable.

Pick: Over 9 or Lower

The Over 9 or lower is the preferred total target. Sunday's starting pitchers enter with ERAs of 5.11 and 5.79, and both have WHIPs above 1.50. They have combined to allow 289 hits across 261.2 innings, while Cincinnati's scheduled starter has also surrendered 18 home runs. Chicago has scored 821 runs and hit 212 homers this season, while Cincinnati has enough power with 203 home runs to take advantage of Chicago's vulnerable starting matchup. The first completed game of the series produced 10 runs, and the pitching profiles create another favorable environment for offense. The Over remains attractive at nine or lower, but the value becomes much thinner if the market moves significantly above that number.

Final Picks: Chicago Cubs Moneyline and Over 9 or Lower

This preview was completed on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.