Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction - September 21, 2025
A key clash of National League Central sides wraps up on Sunday afternoon, so it’s in your best interest to check out our Cubs vs. Reds predictions and close out the weekend with a win. Chicago (88-66, 2nd in N.L. Central) is going with RHP Jameson Taillon (10-6, 3.93 ERA) as their starting pitcher. Cincinnati (78-76, 3rd in N.L. Central) is going with LHP Andrew Abbott (9-7, 2.88 ERA). The first pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 1:40 EST and with more action on the day, be sure to check out all of our Free MLB Picks.
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Saturday’s games.)
Cubs ready to be the wildest
The Cubs are locked into a Wild Card spot already and closing in on clinching the top spot, while a division title is almost officially unattainable. They lost the first two games of this series, and this is their last road game of the season. Chicago’s pitching staff had a 3.82 ERA through 154 games, with a league-best 1.19 WHIP. They had struck out 1,193 batters and opponents were hitting .240 against the team. Cubs’ starters entered Saturday with a 61-40 record and 3.86 ERA. Their bullpen provided 42 saves, 27 wins and a 3.77 ERA. Over the past 30 days, the staff matched their season mark with a 3.86 ERA over 26 games.
In that same stretch of games, the Cubs’ offense hit .251 with 118 runs. On the year, they’ve scored 747 runs, fifth most in the National League, and they had a .249 team batting average. They were third in the league with 207 home runs and second with 154 stolen bases. Pete Crow-Armstrong is tied for third in the N.L. with 35 stolen bases. The outfielder is hitting .248 on the year with 29 home runs, 90 RBIs and a team-high 88 runs. Nico Hoerner is second in the league with a .300 batting average and has struck out only 44 times in 564 at-bats.
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Starter spotlight
- Jameson Taillon makes his 22nd start of the season and the Cubs are 12-9 when he goes.
- He won in his last outing after allowing two hits and two walks over six scoreless innings.
- He is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA over his last four starts.
- Opponents are hitting .230 against the right-hander with 23 home runs and 25 walks.
- Taillon is 7-6 with a 4.67 ERA in 19 career starts against the Reds.
Reds in striking distance
The Reds went into Saturday’s action two games back of the final Wild Card slot in the National League. They had won three straight games and four of their last five. Thursday’s 1-0 win over the Cubs was the pitching staff’s first shutout since August 13th. They’ve recorded eight on the season, and the staff ranked seventh in the league with a 3.94 ERA. Reds’ pitchers struck out 1,306 batters and had a 1.24 WHIP while opponents hit .236 against them. Starters for the club were 50-47 and had a 3.87 ERA while Reds’ relievers had 28 wins, 36 saves and a 4.06 ERA.
In the past month of play, Cincinnati’s hitters had a .232 batting average in 26 games and scored 109 runs. They rank 10th in the National League, hitting .245 as a team with 690 runs. Their 158 home runs ranked ninth in the league and the team had 100 stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz is tied for third in the league with 35 stolen bases. The shortstop is seventh in the league with 100 runs and is hitting .262 with a team-high 83 RBIs. Gavin Lux leads the club with a .267 batting average but has hit just .208 over 15 games in September.
Starter spotlight
- This is Andrew Abbott’s 28th start of the season, with the Reds going 15-12 with him on the hill.
- The lefty lost in his last start after allowing three runs and eight hits over 4.2 innings at St. Louis.
- He went 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA over his last five starts.
- Teams have hit 18 home runs against him and are hitting .234 with 42 walks.
- Abbott is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA in six career starts versus the Cubs.
Cubs vs. Reds Picks
Spread Pick for Cubs vs. Reds
- Reds -112 (5 units)
Before Saturday, the Reds owned a 6-5 lead in the season series. Both teams are still playing for something, though the Cubs are comfortably in the postseason already, so the Reds are playing more desperately. Abbott has been struggling over the last month-plus but will benefit from being at home in this start. The left-hander is 4-4 with a 2.52 ERA at Great American Ball Park this season and teams were hitting just .235 against him there. The Cubs' offense struggled in the first two games of this series and by this point will be just looking to get home, where they can finish out the regular season. This is a big spot for Cincinnati and will likely determine their path over the final week of play. A win here keeps them in the hunt. Cincinnati is 4-1 over their last five games against Chicago.
Take the Reds.
Over/Under Pick for Cubs vs. Reds
- Under 9 (5 units)
The first two games of this series split as the teams combined to average six runs per game. The Cubs offense were blanked on Thursday night and their offense has been far from overwhelming down the stretch, scoring four runs or less in six of their last seven games. The Reds’ offense has been one of the lower-end performers in the league this season, though they have picked up the pace as they battle for a postseason spot. Still, they’ve scored four runs or less in eight of their last 12 games. This is also not a bad starting pitching matchup at all. Noted above, Abbott has a 2.52 ERA at home this season, and Taillon has allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts. Lastly, it’s a day game after a night game. The under is 6-2 in the last eight games between the teams and 4-1 in the last five.
Take the under.
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