Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Picks - Thursday, September 18, 2025
The Cubs will be in celebration mode this Thursday as they continue their road trip against NL Central rivals Cincinnati. Find out more about this matchup with our Cubs vs. Reds prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm ET at The Great American Ball Park, home of the Reds.
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Cubs heading for October
The champagne came out on Wednesday afternoon in Pittsburgh as the Chicago Cubs (88-64) celebrated clinching a playoff spot with a 8-4 win over the Pirates. They became the third NL team to book their place after the Brewers and Phillies and return to the postseason for the first time since the Covid-affected 2020 season. For now the top NL Wild Card slot looks the most likely outcome for Chicago, which trails Milwaukee by five games at the top of the NL Central with 10 left on the schedule.
The Cubs are yet to confirm their starter for Thursday's series opener. Colin Rea would be available on regular rest after last pitching September 13, but with the playoffs looming Chicago may choose to reset its rotation and hand out extra days off for a hard-worked staff. The Cubs have got solid production out of its starters this year, despite losing ace Justin Steele to a season-ending injury early in the season. Cubs starters rank fourth in the NL with a 3.87 ERA and have a lower WHIP than any other NL rotation at 1.16.
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Reds fading in playoff race
The Reds (76-76) remain in the fight for the last NL Wild Card spot, but time is running out. They got back to .500 with a 6-2 win over the Cardinals Wednesday to get back to .500, fired by a huge game from Spencer Steer. The first baseman went 3-for-5 with a home run while driving in five of the Reds' runs, despite still feeling the pain from a rib injury that forced him to miss the previous two games. On the mound, Brady Singer held St. Louis to two earned runs in 5.2 innings while striking out six to earn his 14th win of the season. Cincinnati remains 2.5 games behind the Mets in the NL's last Wildcard spot.
Hunter Greene will start a must-win game for the Reds on Thursday. Greene has gone 6-4 this season with a 3.01 ERA, striking out 116 batters in 92.2 innings. The right-hander's fourth MLB season has been interrupted by injury, with a groin problem keeping him out for more than two months before he finally made his return in August. His return had been going very smoothly with a 2.35 ERA in his first five starts since being activated, but he was rocked last time out by the Athletics, who scored five earned runs on the righty in 2.1 innings.
Cubs vs. Reds pick
Moneyline Pick for Cubs vs. Reds
- Reds moneyline (4 units)
Losing is not an option for the Reds, and I think they will play that way against a Cubs team that might be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas pedal for a minute. Greene, too is a potential game-changer for Cincinnati, and that ugly last start excluded, has pitched well since regaining his health. The Reds have a strong home record against the Cubs recently, going 9-7 against their NL Central rivals at the GABP since the start of the 2024 season. They are 40-33 overall at home in 2025.
Take the Reds on the runline.
Over/under Pick for Cubs vs. Reds
- Over (5 units)
The Cubs and Reds have played some big-scoring games this year at the GABP and I am backing that to continue on Thursday. All three of the Reds' home games against the Cubs have landed on the over so far, with a total of 48 runs being scored in those matchups (16 runs per game). Cincinnati has a home OPS of .725 collectively compared to .691 when playing on the road. The Cubs have the highest away OPS in the NL at .770 and have also hit more homers on the road than any other team with 116, at a rate of 1.51 per game.
Take the over.
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