Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Friday September 4 2026

The Chicago Cubs travel to Miami to face the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on Friday, September 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET, with MLB.TV providing coverage. Chicago enters at 78-62 overall and 38-31 on the road, while Miami is 71-69 overall and an impressive 42-27 at home. The Cubs sit second in the NL Central, nine games behind Milwaukee, while the Marlins are third in the NL East and 12 games behind Atlanta. ESPN Analytics gives Chicago a narrow 51.4% win probability compared with 48.6% for Miami. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks throughout the baseball season.

Starting Pitchers

Shota Imanaga gets the start for Chicago and enters at 8-10 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 150.1 innings. He has allowed 137 hits while recording 148 strikeouts against 35 walks and surrendering 33 home runs. Miami counters with Janson Junk, who is 6-8 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 103 innings. He has allowed 106 hits while striking out 70, walking 28 and giving up 12 home runs. Chicago owns the slight edge in ERA and a more meaningful advantage in WHIP and strikeout production, although the Cubs' starter has been much more vulnerable to the long ball.

Cubs Bring the Stronger Offensive Profile

Chicago enters Friday at 78-62 overall and has played well enough on the road to stay above .500 at 38-31. The Cubs have gone 2-3 across their last five games and enter on a two-game losing streak after dropping consecutive games to Milwaukee by scores of 9-4 and 9-5. Their recent stretch has been volatile, however, as those losses came immediately after a 17-3 victory and another 17-5 win earlier in the five-game sample.

The Cubs are batting .252 with 751 runs, 1,217 hits and 197 home runs. They own a .340 on-base percentage and .432 slugging percentage. Chicago holds clear advantages over Miami in runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The Cubs have scored 139 more runs and hit 55 more home runs than the Marlins, giving them the stronger overall offensive ceiling.

Chicago's pitching staff has been less dominant, carrying a 4.21 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while opponents are batting .246. The Cubs have issued 422 walks and recorded 1,082 strikeouts. Those numbers are slightly worse than Miami's in ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average, so this is not a matchup where Chicago owns every statistical edge. The Cubs' biggest advantages are offensive production and the slightly stronger starting-pitching profile.

Marlins Have Been Excellent at Home

Miami enters Friday at 71-69 and has quietly built one of the stronger home records in the National League at 42-27. The Marlins have won three of their last five games and enter on a two-game winning streak after beating Kansas City 6-3 and 9-6. They also recently earned a 6-2 road win over Washington, giving them three victories in their last four games.

The Marlins are batting .248 with 612 runs, 1,156 hits and 142 home runs. They own a .326 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage. Miami does not match Chicago's power or overall run production, but the offense has been productive enough to complement a better pitching staff. The Marlins also bring more recent momentum into the series, which matters against a Cubs team coming off consecutive losses.

Miami's pitching has been the stronger team-level unit. The Marlins own a 3.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while holding opponents to a .231 batting average. They have recorded 1,137 strikeouts against 473 walks. Those numbers compare favorably with Chicago's 4.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .246 opponent batting average. Combined with a 42-27 home record, Miami has enough statistical support to make this far more competitive than the overall records alone suggest.

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

I'm taking the Miami Marlins Moneyline as the side. Chicago owns the better overall record and clearly stronger offense, but Miami has the better home profile, stronger team pitching numbers and enters with more recent momentum. The Marlins are 42-27 at loanDepot park, while the Cubs have dropped two straight and have allowed nine runs in each of those defeats. ESPN Analytics views this as nearly a coin flip, and in that type of matchup I prefer the home team with the stronger run-prevention profile. Miami Moneyline is the side pick.

Pick: Over 8.5

The Over 8.5 is my preferred target total. Chicago's offense has shown enormous scoring upside recently, while both scheduled starters carry ERAs above 4.00. The Cubs' starter has also surrendered 33 home runs, creating some vulnerability against a Miami team that has scored 15 runs over its last two games. At the same time, Chicago has allowed 18 runs across its last two contests. With enough offensive potential on both sides and neither starter bringing elite run-prevention numbers, take the Over if the total is set at 8.5.

Final Picks: Miami Marlins Moneyline and Over 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.