Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Monday, October 6, 2025
Use Code SSWC In our Cubs vs. Brewers prediction, the Chicago Cubs dropped Game 1 of the NLDS and are now facing a 0-1 record in a best-of-five series. Left-hander Shota Imanaga (9-8, 3.73 ERA) will be on the mound and he pitched out of the bullpen in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card as he pitched four innings and allowed two runs on three hits with two walks and three strikeouts without factoring into the decision.
The Milwaukee Brewers were able to dominate in Game 1 of the NLDS to take a 1-0 series lead. Southpaw Aaron Ashby (5-2, 2.16 ER) is going to be taking the mound here and actually pitched in Game 1 out of the bullpen as he threw 1.1 perfect innings with one strikeout.
Cover the diamond — MLB picks for the Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers in a fast read.
Cubs Looking to Split Road Games
The Chicago Cubs have been one of the better offensive teams in the playoffs as they are fourth in the sport with a .708 team OPS while averaging 2.25 runs per game. The team has been able to hit for power as they are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers with six home runs. First baseman Michael Busch had a good start to the playoffs as he has gone 5-for-14 with two home runs, two RBI, two runs scored, and a 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio in four games.
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Shota Imanaga’s Baseball Savant page has him in the sixth percentile in barrel percentage, 11th percentile in average exit velocity, 24th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 34th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has a six-pitch arsenal (fastball, splitter, sweeper, curveball, sinker, slider) and his sweeper has been his best pitch as hitters have a .153 batting average and .208 slugging percentage with zero home runs and 30 strikeouts against it. Imanaga faced the Brewers twice during the regular season as he has gone 1-1 in 10.2 innings and gave up five runs on nine hits with one walk and 12 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Chicago
- Pitcher Cade Horton: Ribs (OUT)
- Right fielder Owen Caissie: Concussion (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Braiser: Groin (OUT)
- Catcher Miguel Amaya: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Steele: Elbow (OUT)
Brewers Looking for a 2-0 Start
The Milwaukee Brewers have were able to step up at the plate as they are third in MLB with a .888 team OPS while averaging 9.0 runs per game. The team was able to do so by drawing five walks to eight strikeouts up to this point. Third baseman Caleb Durbin has been able to get off to a good start to the playoffs as he is 1-for-4 with two RBI.
Aaron Ashby is in the 99th percentile in barrel percentage, 86th percentile in xERA, 84th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 75th percentile in xBA according to his Baseball Savant page. He has five different pitches (sinker, curveball, changeup, slider, fastball) and his curveball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .143 batting average and .184 slugging percentage with zero home runs and 27 strikeouts. Ashby is going to be intriguing in this start to see how long he goes here.
Injury Report for Milwaukee
- Catcher William Contreras: Hand (Questionable)
- Center fielder Jackson Chourio: Hamstring (Questionable)
- Pitcher Brandon Woodruff: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Jose Quintana: Calf (OUT)
- Pitcher Shelby Miller: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Logan Henderson: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Montgomery: Elbow (OUT)
- Center fielder Garrett Mitchell: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Connor Thomas: Elbow (OUT)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Spread Pick for Cubs vs. Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers -137 (4 units)
When looking at the team’s ability to hit with runners in scoring position so far, there is a clear difference as Chicago was 1-for-15 in those chances during the playoffs while Milwaukee is 7-for-17 in those at-bats. Aaron Ashby has not allowed a run in his last seven outings (10.1 innings), while Shota Imanaga has a 5.40 ERA in his last seven outings (41.2 innings). Milwaukee just dominated Game 1 so expect them to improve to 2-0 in the NLDS before heading to Chicago.
Over/Under Pick for Cubs vs. Brewers
- UNDER (5 units)
The potential loss of Jackson Chourio is going to be more of an effect for Milwaukee’s offense than people understand. He is a solid hitter and able to take the extra base, so if he is hampered or even injured, things are going to be difficult for Milwaukee’s lineup, which doesn’t hit for power. Chicago has been unable to put up a big number in an inning, so expecting them to do that here is tough. The bullpens are looking to step up and have done well to begin the postseason as the Cubs are fifth with a 2.16 reliever ERA while the Brewers are sixth with a 2.70 bullpen ERA so far. All in all, go with the UNDER as the better bet.
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