Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
In our Cubs vs. Brewers prediction, the Chicago Cubs were able to win Game 3 of the NL Wild Card at home against the San Diego Padres to advance to the NLDS. They are expected to send right-hander Colin Rea to the mound and he appeared in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card against the Padres out of the bullpen as he threw 1.2 shutout innings and allowed one hit with zero walks and one strikeout.
The Milwaukee Brewers were able to dominate throughout the regular season as they finished with the best record in the National League and were awarded a bye in the NL Wild Card Round as a result. Righty Freddy Peralta will be taking the mound to open the series and last pitched on Sept. 28 in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds, where he threw two innings and gave up one run on three hits with zero walks and three strikeouts on the day.
From splits to bullpens, MLB predictions for the Chicago Cubs vs. the Milwaukee Brewers highlight the edge.
Cubs Looking to Steal Game 1
The Chicago Cubs have been one of the more successful offensive teams in the playoffs through the Wild Card Round as they are second in the sport with a .699 team OPS while averaging 2.0 runs per game. The team has not been able to draw free passes as they had a 3:25 walk-to-strikeout ratio in their three NL Wild Card Round games. Catcher Carson Kelly had a good series as he was 3-for-8 with a home run, one RBI, one run scored, and a 1:4 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
Colin Rea’s Baseball Savant page has him in the 15th percentile in xBA, 18th percentile in barrel percentage, 19th percentile in xERA, and 23rd percentile in whiff percentage. He has a seven-pitch arsenal (fastball, splitter, slider, sinker, curveball, sweeper, cutter) and his fastball has been getting hit as hitters have a .282 batting average and .475 slugging percentage with 10 home runs and 49 strikeouts against it. Rea faced the Brewers twice in the regular season and finished 1-1 in 9.2 innings and gave up six runs on 12 hits with six walks and five strikeouts. Lefty Matthew Boyd, who has a 14-8 record with a 3.21 ERA with 154 strikeouts, is the projected starter for the Cubs.
Injury Report for Chicago
- Pitcher Cade Horton: Ribs (OUT)
- Right fielder Owen Caissie: Concussion (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Braiser: Groin (OUT)
- Catcher Miguel Amaya: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Steele: Elbow (OUT)
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Brewers Trying to Prove Rest Doesn’t Equal Rust
The Milwaukee Brewers have not played since Sunday’s regular-season finale, but they were 11th in the 162-game season with a .735 team OPS while scoring 4.98 runs per game. They were aggressive on the bases, ranking second in MLB with 164 steals while being caught 53 times. Designated hitter Christian Yelich finished with a .264/.343/.452 slash line with 29 home runs, 103 RBI, 88 runs scored, and 16 steals while being caught six times over 150 games.
Starter Freddy Peralta is in the 90th percentile in hard hit percentage, 85th percentile in xBA, 84th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 83rd in whiff percentage according to his Baseball Savant page. He has four different pitches (fastball, changeup, curveball, slider) and his slider has been his best pitch as hitters have a .157 batting average and .216 slugging percentage with zero home runs and 21 strikeouts. Peralta faced the Cubs four times during the regular season as he went 3-1 in 21.0 innings and allowed eight runs on 12 hits with one hit by pitch, 10 walks, and 22 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Milwaukee
- Catcher William Contreras: Hand (Questionable)
- Pitcher Brandon Woodruff: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Jose Quintana: Calf (OUT)
- Pitcher Shelby Miller: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Logan Henderson: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Montgomery: Elbow (OUT)
- Center fielder Garrett Mitchell: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Connor Thomas: Elbow (OUT)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Spread Pick for Cubs vs. Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers -175 (5 units)
These teams are very similar to one another as the Cubs actually won the season series 7-6 and had a 60-56 run differential in the regular season. However, things are going to be a bit different as the Brewers have a few distinct advantages. One is that they are rested up, so their bullpen is fresh, while Chicago had to get 17.2 innings out of their bullpen in the NL Wild Card (highest in MLB postseason). The Cubs are not hitting too well throughout the postseason, while the Brewers should step up. Freddy Peralta dominated at home with a 1.77 home ERA and a .192 batting average against in 91.2 innings (17 starts). All in all, go with the Milwaukee Brewers to record the win to open the NLDS.
Over/Under Pick for Cubs vs. Brewers
- UNDER (5 units)
Freddy Peralta has dominated at home throughout the regular season, and Colin Rea has gotten the postseason debut for the 2025 season under his belt with a relief appearance in the NL Wild Card series. Chicago was cold at the plate during the NL Wild Card, but did just enough to record a series win to advance to this round. Two divisional opponents are going to play a close, low-scoring game in Game 1, so take the UNDER here.
