Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for July 24, 2026
The Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on July 24, 2026. The game is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. and will be televised on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the matchup with a 57-45 overall record and a 27-23 record on the road, while Pittsburgh is 53-50 overall and 27-24 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Cubs a 49.1% chance of winning and the Pirates a 50.9% chance. The listed game-time temperature is 79 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Matthew Boyd is scheduled to start for Chicago against Pittsburgh right-hander Jared Jones. Boyd is 6-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through 52 innings. He has allowed 49 hits and six home runs while recording 51 strikeouts and issuing 14 walks. Jones enters with a 2-1 record, a 4.05 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP across 40 innings. He has surrendered 32 hits and five home runs while collecting 48 strikeouts and allowing 12 walks. Jones has the slightly lower ERA and WHIP, but Boyd has pitched 12 more innings and earned four more victories. Both starters have posted similar strikeout, walk, and home-run totals.
Chicago Carries Its Offensive Production on the Road
Chicago enters Friday’s matchup with a 57-45 overall record and a 27-23 mark away from home. The Cubs have won three of their last five games, recently defeating Detroit 11-2 and earning victories of 10-1 and 6-2 over Minnesota. Chicago also recently lost to Detroit by scores of 5-1 and 8-6, with the latter contest requiring 10 innings. The Cubs scored at least six runs in four of those five games and reached double figures twice.
The Cubs have recorded a .245 batting average, a .338 on-base percentage, and a .413 slugging percentage. They have accumulated 853 hits, scored 520 runs, and hit 128 home runs. Chicago’s pitching staff enters with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .246. The staff has recorded 798 strikeouts and issued 311 walks. The Cubs have also posted a 23-19 record in day games, although this matchup is scheduled for the evening.
Chicago’s most encouraging strength is its ability to reach base consistently. The Cubs’ .338 on-base percentage is almost identical to Pittsburgh’s .339 mark, even though Chicago trails the Pirates in batting average and total hits. The Cubs have also issued 59 fewer walks than Pittsburgh’s pitching staff and own the lower team WHIP. However, Chicago has scored 23 fewer runs and hit four fewer home runs, leaving the visitors with a narrow offensive disadvantage despite their stronger overall record.
Pittsburgh Brings a Productive Lineup Back to PNC Park
Pittsburgh is 53-50 overall and 27-24 at home entering this series. The Pirates have won two of their last five games, recently earning a 5-3 victory over New York in 10 innings and a 7-1 win over Cleveland. Pittsburgh also recently lost to New York by scores of 2-0 and 8-5 while suffering a 5-3 defeat against Cleveland. The Pirates scored at least five runs in three of those five contests but were held scoreless in their most recent game.
The Pirates own a .261 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and a .424 slugging percentage. They have produced 543 runs on 933 hits while hitting 132 home runs. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff carries a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .239 batting average. The staff has recorded 943 strikeouts and issued 370 walks. Pittsburgh has also compiled a 29-17 record in day games, though Friday’s contest is scheduled for 6:40 p.m.
Pittsburgh’s clearest advantage comes from its overall offensive production. The Pirates lead Chicago by 16 points in batting average, 80 hits, 23 runs, four home runs, one point in on-base percentage, and 11 points in slugging percentage. Pittsburgh also owns a slight advantage in team ERA and has held opposing hitters to a lower batting average. The primary weakness is its 1.31 WHIP and 370 walks, both of which are higher than Chicago’s corresponding pitching figures.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Pittsburgh is my side selection in a matchup that ESPN Analytics considers nearly even. The Pirates have the better batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hit total, run total, and home-run total. Pittsburgh also owns the slightly lower team ERA and has held opponents to a .239 batting average compared with Chicago’s .246 mark. The Cubs have the stronger overall record and have won three of their last five games, but Pittsburgh’s offensive advantages and narrow 50.9% matchup probability support the home team.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. I prefer the over because Chicago has scored at least six runs in four of its last five games, including two performances with 10 or more runs. Pittsburgh has scored at least five runs in three of its last five contests and enters with the higher batting average, slugging percentage, and season run total. The scheduled starters carry ERAs of 4.15 and 4.05, while the team ERAs are 4.27 and 4.26. Those supplied offensive results and pitching numbers make the over my preferred total.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 5 – Chicago Cubs 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.