Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 25, 2026
The Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, July 25, 2026. The opening pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the matchup at 57-45 overall and 27-23 on the road, while Pittsburgh stands at 53-50 overall and 27-24 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Cubs a 35.7% chance of winning and the Pirates a 64.3% probability. The game-time temperature is listed at 82 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before Saturday’s MLB games begin.
Starting Pitchers for Chicago and Pittsburgh
Shota Imanaga is scheduled to start for Chicago after compiling a 6-8 record with a 3.91 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 115 innings. The left-hander has allowed 100 hits and 22 home runs while recording 109 strikeouts against 28 walks. Pittsburgh is expected to counter with Paul Skenes, who carries a 9-8 record, 3.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 115.1 innings. The right-hander has surrendered 94 hits and 11 home runs while collecting 138 strikeouts against 26 walks.
Chicago Brings a Productive Offense into PNC Park
Chicago enters Saturday with a 57-45 overall record and a winning 27-23 mark away from home. The Cubs recently lost 5-1 to Detroit after defeating the same opponent 11-2. They also suffered an 8-6 loss in 10 innings against Detroit following consecutive victories over Minnesota by scores of 10-1 and 6-2. Chicago has won three of its last five games and has scored at least six runs in four contests during that span.
The Cubs are batting .245 with 853 hits, 520 runs and 128 home runs. Their offense owns a .338 on-base percentage and a .413 slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has compiled a 4.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .246 batting average. The staff has recorded 798 strikeouts and issued 311 walks. Chicago has also posted a 23-19 record in day games.
Chicago’s clearest advantage is its ability to reach base while limiting free passes from the mound. The Cubs’ .338 on-base percentage is nearly identical to Pittsburgh’s .339 mark, but Chicago has issued 59 fewer walks. The Cubs have also allowed fewer hits and carry the lower team WHIP. Their recent offensive production is encouraging, although Saturday’s scheduled pitching matchup presents a difficult challenge against a starter with a 3.43 ERA and 138 strikeouts.
Pittsburgh Looks to Capitalize on Its Statistical Advantages
Pittsburgh comes into the game at 53-50 overall with a 27-24 record at PNC Park. The Pirates recently split two games against the New York Yankees on the same day, losing 2-0 before earning a 5-3 victory in 10 innings. They also suffered an 8-5 loss to New York after defeating Cleveland 7-1 and losing another meeting with the Guardians 5-3. Pittsburgh has gone 2-3 across its last five games and has scored five or more runs in three of them.
The Pirates are batting .261 with 933 hits, 543 runs and 132 home runs. Their lineup carries a .339 on-base percentage and a .424 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff owns a 4.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .239 batting average. The staff has accumulated 943 strikeouts against 370 walks. The Pirates have also produced a strong 29-17 record in day games.
Pittsburgh’s principal strength is its broader offensive profile. The Pirates hold advantages over the Cubs in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Pittsburgh has scored 23 more runs while collecting 80 additional hits. Its pitching staff has also registered 145 more strikeouts and held opponents to a lower batting average. The higher WHIP and walk total create some concern, but Pittsburgh enters with several meaningful statistical edges.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Pittsburgh is the preferred side because it owns the stronger offensive profile and the more favorable scheduled pitching matchup. ESPN Analytics gives the Pirates a 64.3% chance of winning compared with 35.7% for Chicago. Pittsburgh is also 27-24 at home, while the Cubs enter with a 27-23 road record.
The scheduled starters have worked nearly identical inning totals, making their statistical comparison especially useful. Pittsburgh’s starter has the lower ERA and WHIP while recording 29 more strikeouts, allowing six fewer hits and surrendering 11 fewer home runs. The Pirates also lead Chicago in every supplied major offensive category. Chicago’s winning overall and road records make this competitive, but Pittsburgh’s starting-pitching and offensive advantages support the home team.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Both scheduled starters own WHIPs of 1.11 or lower and have combined to issue only 54 walks across more than 230 innings. Pittsburgh’s starter has allowed just 11 home runs through 115.1 innings, while the Pirates have held opposing hitters to a .239 batting average.
Chicago has recently produced several high-scoring performances, and Pittsburgh has scored at least five runs in three of its last five games. However, the strength of the scheduled pitching matchup could limit those offenses. Pittsburgh’s most recent contest ended 2-0, while Chicago was held to one run in its latest game. The starting pitchers’ combined command and baserunner prevention support a total that remains below 8.5.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 4 – Chicago Cubs 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.