Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Tuesday September 29 2026

The Chicago Cubs visit the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, for Game 1 of their National League Wild Card Series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET with coverage on Peacock and NBCSN. Chicago finished the regular season 89-73 overall and 43-38 on the road, while San Diego went 91-71 overall and an excellent 51-30 at home. The Cubs finished second in the NL Central, 14 games behind Milwaukee, while San Diego placed second in the NL West, nine games behind Los Angeles. Chicago went 2-3 over its final five games, while the Padres finished considerably stronger at 4-1. DraftKings has San Diego at -126 on the moneyline with Chicago at +105. The run line has Chicago +1.5 at -207 and San Diego -1.5 at +169, while the total has moved from an opening 7.5 to 7 runs, with Over 7 at -113 and Under 7 at -106. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the postseason.

Starting Pitchers

Chicago had not announced its Game 1 starting pitcher in the supplied matchup information when this preview was completed. San Diego is scheduled to start Michael King, although the supplied Game 1 information does not include his 2026 win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, innings or other season statistics. The Cubs finished the regular season with a 4.12 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while San Diego recorded a 3.99 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. With Chicago's starter still undecided, that announcement remains one of the most important pieces of information to watch before wagering on Game 1.

Cubs Bring the More Productive Offense

Chicago finished 89-73 and went five games above .500 away from Wrigley Field. The Cubs were inconsistent during the final week, going 2-3 over their last five games, but they closed the regular season with an encouraging 6-2 victory over Boston. Before that win, Chicago had scored only seven runs across four games, including a 2-0 shutout loss.

The Cubs were clearly the more productive offensive team over the full season. Chicago hit .251 with 1,398 hits, 850 runs and 220 home runs while posting a .339 on-base percentage and .428 slugging percentage. The pitching staff finished with a 4.12 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, recorded 1,260 strikeouts and held opposing hitters to a .243 batting average.

Chicago's ability to generate offense is its biggest advantage in this matchup. The Cubs scored 128 more runs than San Diego and hit 37 more home runs during the regular season. They also held advantages in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The question is whether that production travels into Petco Park against a San Diego staff that finished with a sub-4.00 ERA. If Chicago can generate early traffic and avoid allowing San Diego to dictate a low-scoring game, the Cubs have a legitimate opportunity to steal the opener.

Padres Enter October Playing Their Best Baseball

San Diego finished 91-71 and was particularly strong at Petco Park, where the Padres went 51-30. They also enter the postseason with considerable momentum after winning four of their final five games. San Diego took its final two against Arizona by scores of 10-7 and 9-4 after previously beating the Dodgers 4-2 and 5-1.

The Padres finished the regular season batting .244 with 1,314 hits, 722 runs and 183 home runs. They posted a .319 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. San Diego's pitching staff was a greater strength, recording a 3.99 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 1,315 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .242 batting average.

San Diego's biggest advantage is the combination of home field and recent form. The Padres won 63 percent of their home games and scored 28 runs over their final three contests. Their season-long offense doesn't compare favorably with Chicago's, but San Diego doesn't necessarily need to win a high-scoring game. The Padres have the pitching to remain competitive, and their late-season offensive surge makes them more dangerous than the full-season numbers alone suggest.

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs +105

San Diego's 51-30 home record deserves respect, but Chicago at plus money offers the better betting value. The Cubs scored 128 more runs, hit 37 more home runs and finished with substantial advantages in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Chicago also finished only two games behind San Diego despite playing in a division featuring a 103-win Milwaukee team. The Padres are playing better entering October, but this matchup is close enough that I'll take the plus-money side and back Chicago +105 rather than lay -126 with San Diego.

Pick: Over 7 (-113)

The movement from 7.5 to 7 creates a much more appealing over position because exactly seven runs now produces a push. Chicago scored 850 runs and hit 220 home runs during the regular season, while San Diego suddenly enters October with a hot offense after scoring 23 runs over its final two games and 32 across its final three. Chicago's unannounced starter adds another layer of uncertainty. Petco Park and the postseason setting could suppress scoring, but with the number down to seven, the offensive upside on both sides makes the over worth backing.

Final Picks: Chicago Cubs +105 and Over 7 (-113)

This preview was completed on September 28, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.