Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 23 2026

The Chicago Cubs will visit the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington, on Sunday, August 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the weekend at 74-55 overall and 36-28 on the road, while Seattle is 61-68 overall and 34-29 at home. The Mariners took the series opener 6-5 in 10 innings on Friday. Chicago is listed at -110 on the moneyline, Seattle is -110, and the total is 7.5 runs, with the Over priced at -105 and the Under at -115. Bettors can also check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions.

Starting Pitchers

Chicago is scheduled to start Shota Imanaga, who enters at 8-9 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 143.1 innings. He has allowed 124 hits with 140 strikeouts against 32 walks while surrendering 29 home runs. Seattle counters with Bryce Miller, who is 4-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 89.2 innings. He has allowed 75 hits while striking out 87 and walking only 18, with 15 home runs allowed. There is little separation in ERA, but Miller owns the slightly better WHIP while Imanaga has carried the larger workload.

Cubs Have the Offensive Advantage

Chicago enters this matchup at 74-55 overall and has played well away from home with a 36-28 road record. The Cubs have dropped two straight games, including Friday's 6-5 extra-inning loss in Seattle, but they remain 19 games above .500 and firmly ahead of the Mariners in the overall standings.

The Cubs are batting .248 with 661 runs, 1,101 hits and 168 home runs. They also own a .337 on-base percentage and .420 slugging percentage. Chicago's pitching staff has recorded a 4.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .244 opponent batting average.

Chicago's offensive production creates its clearest advantage. The Cubs have scored 155 more runs than Seattle while hitting 22 more home runs, and their advantages in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are substantial. With the starting pitching matchup relatively even, that offensive separation becomes especially important.

Mariners Look to Make Home Field Count

Seattle enters at 61-68 overall but has been considerably better at T-Mobile Park, where it owns a 34-29 record. The Mariners have alternated wins and losses over their last four games, with Friday's 6-5 victory over Chicago following a 7-4 loss at Milwaukee. They have won three of their last five overall.

The Mariners are batting .229 with 506 runs, 980 hits and 146 home runs. They have produced a .309 on-base percentage and .375 slugging percentage. Pitching has been the stronger component of Seattle's profile, with a 4.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while opponents are batting .248.

Seattle's path to another victory is built around run prevention. The Mariners have the slightly better team ERA and WHIP, and Sunday's projected starter has a 3.71 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. However, the offense has been far less productive than Chicago's over the course of the season, putting additional pressure on the pitching staff in what appears to be a closely matched game on the mound.

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-110)

At essentially a pick'em price, Chicago is the preferred side. The starting pitching numbers are close enough that neither club owns a decisive advantage there, while the Cubs have clearly been the superior offensive team. Chicago has scored 661 runs compared with Seattle's 506 and owns sizeable advantages in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. Seattle's 34-29 home record deserves respect, but with both sides priced at -110, take the Cubs moneyline.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

The Under 7.5 is the stronger total play. Both projected starters enter with ERAs below 3.80 and WHIPs around 1.10 or better, while Seattle's offense has averaged fewer than four runs per game across the season. The Mariners' .229 average and .375 slugging percentage also make it difficult to project consistent scoring against a capable starter. Chicago brings the more dangerous lineup, but Seattle's pitching numbers are respectable enough to keep the Cubs from running away offensively. Take Under 7.5.

Game Preview completed prior to play on Saturday.