Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Monday, July 27, 2026
The Chicago Cubs visit the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, on Monday, July 27, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET, with MLB.TV providing television coverage. The game-time temperature is listed at 97 degrees. Chicago enters the matchup at 59-45 overall with a 29-23 road record, while St. Louis is 53-51 overall and 27-28 at home. ESPN Analytics views this as an extremely close matchup, giving the Cardinals a 50.2% chance of winning and the Cubs a 49.8% probability. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before wagering on Monday’s MLB schedule.
Starting Pitchers for Chicago and St. Louis
David Peterson is scheduled to start for Chicago against St. Louis left-hander Matthew Liberatore. Peterson enters with a 5-7 record, a 5.97 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP across 89 innings. He has allowed 101 hits and nine home runs while recording 74 strikeouts and issuing 38 walks. Liberatore is also 5-7, carrying a 5.18 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP through 99 innings. He has surrendered 112 hits and 18 home runs while collecting 95 strikeouts and issuing 38 walks. Liberatore holds the advantages in ERA, WHIP, innings and strikeouts, while Peterson has allowed 11 fewer hits and nine fewer home runs. Both starters have the same record and walk total.
Chicago Brings the More Productive Offense to St. Louis
Chicago enters Monday with a 59-45 overall record and a winning 29-23 mark on the road. The Cubs recently swept two games in Pittsburgh, earning an 11-0 victory after winning the previous matchup 3-2 in 10 innings. Chicago also recently took one of three games against Detroit, winning 11-2 while losing by scores of 5-1 and 8-6 in 10 innings. The Cubs have won three of their five most recently provided games, scoring at least 11 runs in two of those victories.
The Cubs are batting .246 with a .339 on-base percentage and a .413 slugging percentage. They have collected 875 hits, scored 534 runs and produced 130 home runs. Chicago’s pitching staff owns a 4.19 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to bat .245. The staff has recorded 811 strikeouts and issued 315 walks. Chicago also carries a 24-19 record in day games.
Chicago’s clearest advantage is its offensive production. The Cubs lead St. Louis by six points in batting average, 23 points in on-base percentage and 31 points in slugging percentage. They have accumulated 40 more hits, scored 71 more runs and hit 20 more home runs. Chicago has also scored 32 runs across its five most recently provided games. Its concern is the scheduled starting matchup, as the Cubs’ starter enters with the higher ERA and WHIP of the two pitchers.
St. Louis Looks to Capitalize on Its Narrow Pitching Edges
St. Louis enters the contest two games above .500 at 53-51, although the Cardinals have gone 27-28 at Busch Stadium. They recently earned a 7-0 home victory over Cincinnati after losing the previous matchup 4-2. St. Louis also recently lost 10-6 against Arizona before splitting two road games against the Los Angeles Angels, winning 1-0 and losing 5-1. The Cardinals have therefore won two and lost three across their five most recently supplied results.
The Cardinals are batting .240 with a .316 on-base percentage and a .382 slugging percentage. They have accumulated 835 hits, scored 463 runs and hit 110 home runs. St. Louis’ pitching staff carries a 4.13 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .252. The staff has registered 793 strikeouts and issued 349 walks. The Cardinals own a 17-24 record in day games.
St. Louis holds a small advantage in team ERA, with its 4.13 mark sitting just below Chicago’s 4.19 figure. The Cardinals also receive the better starting ERA in Monday’s matchup and have recorded two shutouts within their last four games. However, St. Louis trails Chicago in WHIP, opposing batting average, strikeouts and walks. The Cardinals also face a considerable offensive disadvantage, particularly in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs and home runs.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Chicago is my moneyline selection in a matchup that ESPN Analytics considers almost even. The Cubs hold the better overall and road records, while St. Louis is one game below .500 at home. Chicago also possesses advantages in every supplied offensive category, including 71 more runs and 20 more home runs. St. Louis has the slightly better team ERA and the more favorable scheduled starting-pitcher numbers, but the Cubs own the better WHIP and opposing batting average. Chicago’s broader offensive advantage and three wins across its last five games support the road side.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Total Pick
- Pick: Over 9.0
Take the over if the total is set at 9.0. I would take the over because the scheduled starters carry ERAs of 5.97 and 5.18 with WHIPs of 1.56 and 1.52. Chicago has scored 11 runs twice within its last four games and has produced 32 total runs across its five most recently supplied contests. Three of the Cubs’ last five games reached at least 10 combined runs, while two of the Cardinals’ last three also reached double digits. Although St. Louis has recently recorded two shutouts, the starting-pitching numbers and Chicago’s offensive production point toward at least 10 combined runs.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6 – St. Louis Cardinals 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Sunday.