Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The Chicago Cubs visit the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. The game is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV and TBS. The game-time temperature is expected to be 85 degrees. Chicago enters the matchup at 59-46 overall with a 29-24 road record, while St. Louis stands at 53-52 overall and 27-29 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Cardinals a 54.6% chance of winning, compared with 45.4% for the Cubs. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers at Busch Stadium

Colin Rea is the probable starter for Chicago and enters with a 7-7 record, 4.85 ERA, and 1.42 WHIP. The right-hander has worked 105.2 innings, allowing 112 hits, 38 walks, and 17 home runs while recording 81 strikeouts. St. Louis is expected to counter with Michael McGreevy, who owns a 4-8 record with a 3.07 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The right-hander has completed 114.1 innings, surrendering 102 hits, 27 walks, and 15 home runs while collecting 74 strikeouts. St. Louis holds the statistical advantage in ERA, WHIP, hits allowed, walks, and home runs surrendered, while Chicago’s starter owns the better win-loss record and higher strikeout total.

Chicago Brings the Stronger Overall Profile into St. Louis

The Cubs enter Tuesday’s matchup at 59-46 overall and have gone 29-24 away from home. Chicago has won three of its last five games despite suffering an 8-7 loss at Pittsburgh in its most recent appearance. The Cubs defeated Pittsburgh 11-0 and 3-2 in 10 innings during the preceding two games. Chicago also split its last two listed home contests against Detroit, losing 5-1 after earning an 11-2 victory.

Chicago is batting .247 with 541 runs, 887 hits, and 131 home runs. The Cubs have produced a .339 on-base percentage and a .414 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to bat .246. Chicago has issued 318 walks and recorded 819 strikeouts. The Cubs have gone 36-26 in night games.

The Cubs’ clearest advantage is their superior offensive production. Chicago leads St. Louis by seven points in batting average, 75 runs, 45 hits, and 20 home runs. The Cubs also possess a 23-point advantage in on-base percentage and a 33-point edge in slugging percentage. Chicago has scored 33 runs across its last five games, reaching double figures twice. The concern is a probable starter carrying a 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP against a St. Louis starter with substantially better run-prevention numbers.

St. Louis Turns to Its Starting-Pitching Edge at Home

The Cardinals enter the matchup one game above .500 at 53-52 overall but have gone 27-29 at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has won two of its last five games and recently lost 5-3 in 10 innings against Cincinnati. The Cardinals defeated Cincinnati 7-0 in the preceding contest after losing the series opener 4-2. St. Louis also suffered a 10-6 home loss against Arizona after earning a 1-0 road victory over the Los Angeles Angels.

St. Louis is batting .240 with 466 runs, 842 hits, and 111 home runs. The Cardinals have compiled a .316 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.13 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .252. St. Louis has issued 352 walks and registered 806 strikeouts. The Cardinals are 36-27 in night games.

The Cardinals’ strongest argument comes from the probable pitching matchup. Their scheduled starter enters with a 3.07 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, compared with a 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP for Chicago’s probable starter. St. Louis also owns the slightly better team ERA and has performed well in night games. However, the Cardinals trail Chicago across every supplied offensive category and have lost three of their last four contests. Their ability to suppress the Cubs’ stronger offense will be central to their chances.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick

• Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the preferred side despite St. Louis holding the probable starting-pitching advantage and ESPN Analytics’ 54.6% projection. The Cubs own the stronger overall and road records, while the Cardinals have a losing home mark. Chicago also leads St. Louis in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The Cardinals’ starting numbers make this a competitive matchup, but the Cubs’ broader offensive advantages and 36-26 night-game record support the visitors.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Total Pick

• Pick: Over

Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. I would play the over at that number because Chicago has scored 33 runs across its last five games, with three of those contests producing at least nine combined runs. Four of St. Louis’ last five games have also finished with eight or more combined runs, including totals of 16 and 12. Chicago’s probable starter carries a 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, while the Cubs have enough offensive production to challenge the stronger St. Louis starter.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6 – St. Louis Cardinals 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.