Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 29, 2026

The Chicago Cubs visit the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Chicago enters the matchup at 60-46 overall and 30-24 on the road, while St. Louis is 53-53 overall with a 27-30 home record. ESPN Analytics gives the Cubs a 58.3% chance of winning compared with 41.7% for the Cardinals. The game-time temperature is listed at 86 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers for Chicago and St. Louis

Chicago is scheduled to start Matthew Boyd, who enters Wednesday with a 6-1 record, a 3.81 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP through 59 innings. Boyd has allowed 56 hits and six home runs while recording 55 strikeouts against 17 walks. St. Louis counters with Dustin May, who owns a 5-7 record, a 4.59 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP across 104 innings. May has surrendered 104 hits and seven home runs while producing 103 strikeouts and issuing 33 walks. The Cubs’ starter owns the better record, lower ERA, and lower WHIP. The Cardinals’ starter has completed 45 more innings and recorded 48 more strikeouts, but he has also allowed 48 more hits and issued 16 more walks.

Chicago Seeks Another Road Victory at Busch Stadium

The Cubs enter Wednesday with a 60-46 overall record and a winning 30-24 mark away from home. Chicago has won three of its last five games, including a 7-3 victory over St. Louis in the latest meeting. The Cubs also defeated Pittsburgh 11-0 and 3-2 in 10 innings. Their two losses during this stretch were an 8-7 defeat against Pittsburgh and a 5-1 setback against Detroit. Chicago has scored seven or more runs in three of its last four games.

Chicago is batting .248 as a team with 548 runs, 901 hits, and 133 home runs. The Cubs have produced a .339 on-base percentage and a .415 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.22 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .246. Chicago pitchers have accumulated 825 strikeouts while issuing 321 walks. The Cubs have also compiled a 37-26 record in night games.

The Cubs’ clearest advantage is their overall offensive production. Chicago leads St. Louis in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The Cubs have scored 79 more runs, collected 52 more hits, and hit 21 more home runs. Chicago also holds advantages in team WHIP, opponent batting average, strikeouts, and walks. Its 4.22 team ERA is slightly higher than St. Louis’ 4.16 mark, but the scheduled starting matchup favors the Cubs based on record, ERA, and WHIP.

St. Louis Looks to Reverse Its Recent Slide

The Cardinals enter this matchup at 53-53 overall and have struggled to establish a winning home record, going 27-30 at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has lost four of its last five games, including the recent 7-3 defeat against Chicago. The Cardinals also fell to Cincinnati by scores of 5-3 in 10 innings and 4-2 after suffering a 10-6 loss against Arizona. Their only victory during this stretch was a convincing 7-0 result over Cincinnati.

St. Louis is batting .240 as a team with 469 runs, 849 hits, and 112 home runs. The Cardinals have registered a .315 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.16 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while allowing opposing batters to hit .253. St. Louis pitchers have recorded 815 strikeouts and issued 355 walks. The Cardinals have produced a 36-28 record in night games.

The Cardinals’ strongest statistical argument is their narrow team ERA advantage. St. Louis enters with a 4.16 ERA compared with Chicago’s 4.22 mark, and the recent 7-0 victory shows the Cardinals can deliver a strong run-prevention performance. However, St. Louis trails Chicago across every supplied offensive category. The Cardinals also have the higher WHIP and opponent batting average while recording fewer strikeouts and issuing more walks. Their current four-loss stretch over five games adds another concern against a Cubs team that has already won the latest meeting.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick

• Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the selection because it owns the better overall and road records, receives a 58.3% win probability from ESPN Analytics, and holds meaningful offensive advantages. The Cubs lead the Cardinals in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Their scheduled starter also enters with a better record, lower ERA, and lower WHIP. St. Louis owns a marginal team ERA advantage, but Chicago’s broader statistical profile and recent 7-3 victory support the road side.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Total Pick

• Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.

I would take the over at 8.5 because Chicago has scored seven or more runs in three of its last four games, while four of the Cubs’ latest five contests produced at least nine combined runs. Four of St. Louis’ last five games also reached at least six combined runs, with three reaching eight or more. Chicago has scored 548 runs with a .415 slugging percentage, and the Cardinals’ scheduled starter carries a 4.59 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Those supplied numbers support another productive night for the Cubs and enough scoring from St. Louis to push the game over the target.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6 – St. Louis Cardinals 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Tuesday.