Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction for Sunday July 5 2026
Use Code SSWC The Chicago White Sox travel to Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, to take on the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, July 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET, and the game will be televised on Peacock. Chicago enters with a 45-42 record and is 17-28 on the road, while Cleveland is 47-42 overall and 24-20 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the White Sox a 39.4 percent chance to win, while the Guardians are favored at 60.6 percent. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Take the Mound
The White Sox are expected to start Erick Fedde, who is 3-6 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 79.2 innings. He has allowed 81 hits, struck out 53 batters, walked 33, and given up 14 home runs. Cleveland is scheduled to counter with Tanner Bibee, who enters with a 2-9 record, a 3.69 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP across 102.1 innings. He has surrendered 85 hits while recording 83 strikeouts, issuing 29 walks, and allowing 17 home runs. Bibee brings the lower ERA and WHIP into the matchup while also logging significantly more innings than Fedde.
Chicago Tries to Reverse Its Recent Slide
The White Sox come into Sunday’s game with a 45-42 overall record and a 17-28 mark on the road. Chicago has dropped each of its last three games, including back-to-back losses to Cleveland after falling to Baltimore. Before that stretch, the White Sox picked up consecutive victories over the Orioles.
Chicago is batting .241 with 418 runs scored, 702 hits, and 121 home runs. The club owns a .321 on-base percentage and a .415 slugging percentage. On the mound, the White Sox have posted a 4.24 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP while recording 729 strikeouts, issuing 339 walks, and holding opponents to a .239 batting average.
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The biggest strength for Chicago is its power production. The White Sox have hit 121 home runs, far more than Cleveland’s total, while also producing more runs and a stronger slugging percentage. If the offense can capitalize on those strengths, it has the potential to keep the pressure on throughout the game.
Cleveland Looks to Stay in Control at Home
The Guardians enter this contest with a 47-42 overall record and a 24-20 home record. Cleveland has won three straight games, including consecutive victories over the White Sox after earning a win against Texas. Before that run, the Guardians dropped two games to the Rangers.
Cleveland has compiled a .229 team batting average with 355 runs, 669 hits, and 81 home runs. The Guardians have produced a .312 on-base percentage and a .366 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 3.77 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP, 809 strikeouts, 288 walks, and a .237 opponent batting average.
The Guardians’ biggest advantage is on the mound. Cleveland owns the better ERA, lower WHIP, more strikeouts, fewer walks, and a slightly lower opponent batting average than Chicago. Those numbers have helped the Guardians overcome more modest offensive production during the season.
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pick
- Pick: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline
Cleveland is the selection based solely on the information provided. The Guardians own the better overall record, the stronger home record, the higher matchup predictor percentage, and they have already won the first two games of this series. Their pitching staff also holds advantages in several key categories, making the home team the stronger choice.
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
I like the under if the total is set at 8.5. Cleveland’s team ERA of 3.77 and Tanner Bibee’s 3.69 ERA point toward solid run prevention, while Chicago’s recent games against the Guardians have been decided by scores of 6-5 and 4-3 in 10 innings. With Cleveland’s pitching profile, I expect another competitive game that stays below this number.
Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Guardians 5 – Chicago White Sox 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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