Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 3, 2026

The Chicago White Sox visit the Houston Astros at Daikin Park, with the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET, televised on ESPN Unlimited/MLB.TV. Chicago is 73-65, first in the AL Central, and has won three of its last five after beating Houston 5-1 in the latest completed game. Houston is 70-69, first in the AL West, and has also won three of its last five despite Tuesday’s 5-1 loss. The White Sox are 32-38 away, while Houston is 34-36 at home. Be a winner using our free MLB picks.

Chicago White Sox Hold the AL Central Lead

Chicago has scored 660 runs, with 181 home runs and a .320 on-base percentage. Miguel Vargas has been the biggest power threat with 29 home runs, 76 RBI and a .251 average, while Colson Montgomery also has 29 homers and leads the club with 79 RBI. Chase Meidroth owns a team-best .273 average with 134 hits, and Tristan Peters is batting .276 with 12 home runs. The White Sox have scored at least three runs in four of their last five games.

Pitching has been one of Chicago’s stronger areas. The White Sox rank 14th in MLB with a 4.14 ERA, along with a 1.31 WHIP and .240 opponent batting average. Chicago has allowed 566 earned runs while recording 1,157 strikeouts. The White Sox beat Houston 5-1 in the latest completed meeting after losing the series opener 6-3. Chicago also won two of three completed games in Minnesota immediately before arriving in Houston.

Injuries: Davis Martin, Chris Murphy, Kyle Teel, Prelander Berroa and Tanner Murray are on the injured list.

Houston Astros Rely on Yordan Alvarez

Houston has scored 631 runs with 184 home runs, a .240 average and .409 slugging percentage. Yordan Alvarez has been the clear offensive leader, batting .316 with 37 home runs and 94 RBI. Alvarez also owns a .433 on-base percentage and .603 slugging percentage. Isaac Paredes adds a .256 average, 18 homers and 74 RBI, while Christian Walker has produced 24 home runs and 76 RBI. Houston has scored 18 runs across its last five completed games.

The Astros have been much less reliable on the mound, ranking 25th with a 4.61 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Houston has allowed 632 earned runs, walked 576 hitters, and surrendered 180 home runs. The Astros are 34-36 at Daikin Park and have been outscored 649-630 this season. Houston remains first in the AL West, but Texas is only one game behind, putting added importance on every September series.

Injuries: Mike Burrows, Brice Matthews, Carlos Correa and Brandon Walter are on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup

Chicago White Sox – Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo is 4-10 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across 122 innings. The right-hander has allowed 138 hits, including 23 home runs, while striking out 106 and walking 38. Castillo’s ERA is more than a run higher than Chicago’s 4.14 team mark. His 1.44 WHIP also creates concern because Castillo has allowed plenty of baserunners throughout the season.

Houston Astros – Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown has much stronger numbers at 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 81 innings. Brown has allowed only 61 hits and 10 home runs while recording 86 strikeouts. His 44 walks have increased his WHIP, but Brown has limited hits and long balls. His 3.33 ERA is also considerably better than Houston’s 4.61 team ERA.

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Game Pick

• Chicago White Sox

Chicago has the better season record and the stronger team pitching numbers, making the White Sox the pick in Thursday’s series finale. Chicago owns a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, compared with Houston’s 4.61 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The White Sox also won the latest completed meeting 5-1 and have taken three of their last five games. Hunter Brown provides Houston with the better starting-pitcher numbers, but Chicago’s broader pitching advantage and recent road results support the White Sox to win at Daikin Park Thursday.

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Over/Under Pick

• Under

Recent scoring results point toward a lower total, with Chicago scoring five runs or fewer in four of its last five games. Houston has scored six runs or fewer in each of its last five, including only one against Chicago on Tuesday. Hunter Brown owns a 3.33 ERA with 86 strikeouts across 81 innings, while Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA. Luis Castillo has struggled, but Houston ranks only 20th in team batting average. Those numbers make under the pick Thursday at Daikin Park.