Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction, Thursday, September 4, 2025
The MLB action continues on Thursday with a divisional matchup between the Chicago White Sox (52-88) and the Minnesota Twins (62-77), and we’ve got you covered with our White Sox vs. Twins prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:40 ET from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN.
White Sox Reach the 50-Win Mark
The Chicago White Sox are coming off of the literal all-time worst MLB season, where they went just 41-121 in 2024. While they haven’t completely righted the ship, they have improved and now sit at 52-88 heading into Thursday’s series finale. They’re still in the cellar of the American League Central (28.5 GB), but at least Chicago has seen some of its young ball players take a step forward. Most notably, SS Colson Montgomery has been on fire, blasting 16 game runs in just 49 games. In terms of recent form, the White Sox are in the midst of a 4-0 streak, where they toppled the Yankees (3-2) and have taken care of the Twins thrice (6-5, 12-3, 4-3).
Wednesday’s 4-3 victory over the Twins saw a 9th inning rally carry the White Sox to the win. Brooks Baldwin logged a two-out, RBI-single to cut the deficit to 3-2, while Michael A. Taylor hammered a two-run, go-ahead double to give them the lead. Grant Taylor (1.1 IP, 0 ER) picked up the win in relief, while Jordan Leasure (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door and earned his sixth save in 2025.
- Shane Smith gets the nod for Thursday’s contest, and the 25-year-old has been a bright spot for the youthful White Sox this year.
- Across 24 starts (120.1 IP), the right-hander is 4-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
- Smith last pitched on Saturday and turned in a 6.1-inning quality start against the Yankees, holding them to two earned runs on three hits and two walks.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 5-3 extra innings loss.
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Twins Just 6-16 in Last 22 Games
Meanwhile, this season has been an unmitigated disaster for the Minnesota Twins. They had realistic hopes of winning the American League Central at the beginning of the year, but an underwhelming offense, key injuries, and a complete dismantling of the roster at the trade deadline has left the Twins at just 62-77. They’re now 18.0 games out of the divisional race. Minnesota is in the midst of a 6-16 run, and they’ve lost three consecutive games to the White Sox (6-5, 12-3, 4-3).
Wednesday’s 4-3 defeat fell on the bullpen, and specifically Justin Topa (0.2 IP, 1 ER), who allowed the go-ahead hit in the top of the 9th. Offensively, Royce Lewis turned in a nice night, going 3-for-4 with an RBI and a stolen base.
- Taj Bradley will oppose Smith on Thursday, and the recently-acquired starter hasn’t been overpowering in 2025.
- In 23 total outings between the Rays and Twins, the right-hander has gone 6-7 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
- Bradley is coming off of a nice 5.0-inning outing against the Padres, where he held them to one earned run on one hit and three walks.
- It was a no-decision effort in a contest that the Twins eventually lost 12-1.
Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+125) (5 units)
This line is extremely off, in my opinion. I mean, where do we even start? I’ll start by bringing up the fact that Taj Bradley just faced the White Sox last weekend and got lit up for seven earned runs on nine hits and a walk over 5.0 innings. Chicago won that contest 8-0, and they’ve now gone 5-0 SU against Minnesota over a two-week span.
Additionally, the Twins are simply in horrid form at the moment, as they’re in the midst of a 6-16 SU stretch. Minnesota completely sold off their roster at last month’s deadline, and they’re basically trotting out a AAA team aside from guys like Byron Buxton and the mediocre Royce Lewis. They’re running into Shane Smith, who was sharp with a 2.67 ERA over six outings (33.2 IP) in August. I love the Southsiders as underdogs in this one.
Under 8.5 (-105) (5 units)
While Bradley got roughed up against the White Sox last weekend, he did bounce back with a 5.0-inning start where he limited the Padres to just one earned run. Additionally, both offenses are outside of the top 10 in key categories recently. Over the last seven days, the Sox are 18th in wOBA (.312) and 19th in ISO (.161), while the Twins are 12th (.328) and 16th (.172).
Further elaborating on Smith, he should be primed for a big-time start. In addition to his excellent form in August, the right-hander has owned the Twins in his career. Their current roster is slashing just .190/.346/.190 against him over 21 at-bats. All things considered, this total of 8.5 runs is fair, but I think it’s best to ride with the under.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
